At their summit in Hiroshima, the G7 states are looking for a harder line in dealing with China, but do not want to jeopardize cooperation entirely. They don’t really seem to agree.
Diplomats insist that it will not be an anti-China summit. But criticism of China is omnipresent at the G7 summit of the major democratic economic powers in Japan. The relationship between the US and China is worse than ever. The Europeans are increasingly at odds with the rising superpower.
In Germany, there is a fear of dependence on the second largest economy. The Europeans do not always agree with each other or with the Americans about the right pace. In Hiroshima, China is more in focus than ever before at a G7 summit.
By backing Russian President Vladimir Putin and not condemning the war of aggression against Ukraine, China has sidelined itself. In its rivalry with the USA, China is making a front with Russia against the West, seeking a new world order. Its brash appearance on the global stage, its threats against Taiwan, its territorial claims in the East and South China Seas and its economic muscle flexing make China appear less and less as a partner or competitor and more as a rival.
China counters at the beginning of the summit
China feels the headwind of the G7, counters right at the start. It dismisses the group as a “small clique” – puppets steered by the US into a confrontation with China. The United States is using “various rogue means” such as sanctions, economic blockades, military threats and political isolation, it says in a tit-for-tat response to plans by the G7 to denounce China’s “coercive economic measures”.
“Western countries, led by the United States, are pursuing comprehensive containment, encirclement and suppression of China,” state and party leader Xi Jinping is firmly convinced. He is therefore counting on more independence for China – similar to the Europeans and Americans when they discuss “risk reduction” or “diversification” or even “decoupling”.
The US and China
In his foreign policy, US President Joe Biden is taking a hard line against China, which is seen as the biggest competitor and greatest geopolitical challenge. The US is spending a lot of energy building alliances with key players in Asia to counter China’s thirst for power. Like the Europeans, they always try to emphasize that this is not about an “anti-China alliance” and that nobody has to decide between them and China.
Biden left the punitive tariffs against China in force, which his predecessor Donald Trump, who he otherwise hated, had introduced. He also promotes his “America First” policy, just calls it something else. The Democrat initiated large-scale investments in the United States to make America’s supply chains more independent – above all from China. This applies in particular to critical technological areas such as semiconductors. “We will ensure that the supply chain for America begins in America,” Biden said.
Biden even saddled Trump’s course: the USA imposed export restrictions to deny China access to US technologies. He is currently considering regulating private-sector investments from the USA abroad – at least for sensitive technologies. That too would be aimed at China. The dilemma in all of this: the two largest economies cannot do without each other. China is one of the three largest trading partners for the United States, right after its direct neighbors Canada and Mexico.
Biden’s line is therefore: America does not want a conflict with China, but rather tough competition – and cooperation wherever possible and necessary. But there is a lack of trust on both sides. There is too little talk to each other. Experts warn of misunderstandings between the two armed forces. Never before has there been so much talk about the threat of a war over Taiwan, as Biden wants to use US troops to help the island’s democratic republic in the event of a Chinese attack. “Whoever plays with fire will get burned,” warns China ahead of the summit.
The pressure on China is growing
When the G7 states warn against “unilateral attempts to change the status quo,” they mean not just Russia in Ukraine, but also China and its claim to power in Taiwan and the East and South China Seas. When they condemn “non-market-conforming practices”, they also turn against China. The tone at the summit should nevertheless be cooperative: “We will say that we are ready to maintain a stable and constructive relationship with China and to involve it in global challenges,” said an EU official. To do this, however, China must abide by the rules of the game.
Even if the G7 group demonstrates unity, there are differences. Even within the federal government, the triad of China as partner, competitor, system rival is intoned differently. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) is tougher on China, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) more cautious. Division of labor according to the “good guy, bad guy” method? Or fundamentally different approaches? The answer might lie somewhere in between. Both are aware of China’s economic importance and now want to broaden relations with Asia in order to reduce dependency.
The EU and China
Europeans agree that they are far too dependent on China – and that Beijing often violates European values in an unacceptable manner. There is no common answer to this yet. Dependencies on China vary – and by who would suffer more from retaliation. The People’s Republic is Germany’s most important trading partner.
The disagreement is also evident in the discussion about the eleventh package of sanctions against Russia. Chinese companies are accused of being involved in circumventing the sanctions. For this reason, the EU Commission has proposed creating the legal possibility of restricting selected exports to certain third countries. But it remains to be seen which EU countries have the courage or the will to put China on such a list.
There is agreement not to strive for decoupling from China, but to minimize the risks of dependency. “No decoupling, but smart derisking is the motto,” said Scholz.
The EU between the US and China
But where does Europe see itself between China and the USA? French President Emmanuel Macron warned that EU states could become “vassals” without strategic autonomy. He would like Europe to confidently seek the role of a third superpower between the US and China. The chancellor sees it differently: “Anyone who nostalgically cherishes the dream of a European world power, who indulges in fantasies of a national superpower, is stuck in the past.”