analysis
A meeting of the Nagorno-Karabakh leadership with representatives of Azerbaijan tomorrow could spell the end for the Armenians there. Without outside help, their only options are assimilation or escape. But there is also an opportunity.
September 21 is a historic day for Armenians in the South Caucasus. On this date 32 years ago, the then Soviet republic declared its independence. But what followed were years of war against its neighbor Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which lies on its territory but is predominantly inhabited by Armenians. This year, September 21st could mark an end: that of the self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh.
A meeting of the enclave’s Armenian leadership with representatives from Baku is planned. It should agree to the disarmament of the self-defense forces and its own dissolution as the elected representative of the Armenians. So far they have refused this self-sacrifice and assimilation into the Azerbaijani state.
Thousands on the run
But now they are unable to act. Azerbaijani forces are advancing from all sides; they have already taken strategically important positions and are blocking important roads. Thousands of people are on the run after having to survive without essential supplies and increasingly suffering from malnutrition over the past nine months.
After a Security Council meeting in the morning, the leadership around President Samvel Sharamanyan said that without international support they would be forced to take measures to ensure the physical security of the population. In this hopeless situation, this means protecting the Armenian population from atrocities and violent expulsion by the Azerbaijani troops – and thus enabling an orderly escape to Armenia.
Uncertain fate
Sharamanyan was recently elected president by the parliament in Stepanakert. He immediately showed his willingness to respond to Azerbaijan’s demands. His predecessor had refused to do so. In return for agreeing to Nagorno-Karabakh’s self-dissolution, Sharamanyan could be spared a war criminal charge in an Azerbaijani court, which most Nagorno-Karabakh men face if captured.
But Sharamanyan could also threaten revenge from radical Armenians who do not want to give up Nagorno-Karabakh and could fight against Azerbaijani troops from the forests.
Russia’s calculations
The future of the Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh is also uncertain. The official 2,000 soldiers arrived in Azerbaijan at the end of 2020 as part of a five-year ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia to protect Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. But they mostly let the Azerbaijani armed forces do their part and are now actively helping to evacuate the Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh.
This approach supports the thesis that Russia has long been prepared to grant the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh only autonomous status, but not independence for a state of Nagorno-Karabakh inhabited only by Armenians. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is said to have suggested this years ago when it became apparent that Azerbaijan was gaining military strength thanks to arms purchases from Israel and Turkey. As early as 2016, Azerbaijan demonstrated in a military operation with drones that Nagorno-Karabakh was no longer an impregnable fortress, as the Armenians and many experts still believed at the time.
Miscalculation the Armenians
But to Russia’s anger, not only the leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh, but also the government in Yerevan refused to make compromises that should have led to a long-term stabilization of the situation.
Nikol Pashinyan, who brought about a peaceful transfer of power in Armenia two years after the defeat against Azerbaijan, wanted to show strength with an uncompromising stance. The fact that he also sought contact with the Russian government did little to help Armenia. Russia only intervened significantly in the 2020 war when Azerbaijani forces were about to expel the Armenian population from all of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Ensuring Armenia’s survival
It was already clear then that Russia’s economic and strategic interests in Azerbaijan were greater than in the Armenians, who emerged from the 2020 war significantly weakened militarily – so much so that they were hardly able to defend themselves, and not only in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia has also been unable to counter Azerbaijan’s attacks on its own territory since spring 2021 – and was left alone by Russia, despite its alliance obligations.
Pashinyan must have realized at that time that Nagorno-Karabakh could not be saved in the long term for the Armenians and that the survival of Armenia itself was also at risk. In 2022 he drew the conclusion: in order to secure Armenia’s territorial integrity in a peace agreement, he agreed to recognize Azerbaijan’s borders, including Nagorno-Karabakh.
Crucial days
Pashinyan’s government survived the angry protests of the opposition around the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians because they enjoy even less trust and because many Armenians are tired of the constant tension and dangers of war.
The coming days are crucial for Armenia’s stability. It will be difficult enough to accommodate and care for the tens of thousands of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh. However, if such atrocities as in the 2020 war do not occur, Pashinyan’s opponents will only be able to rally parts of the population to protest.
And there is already great anger directed against Russia. Hardly anyone would take to the streets for Pashinyan anymore. But young people in Yerevan are certain that an attempt to overthrow the country, as Russian propaganda is trying to encourage, would not receive overwhelming support. What is being discussed, however, is the danger that individuals could seek Pashinyan’s life. A precedent rooted in collective memory occurred in 1999, when several members of the government were shot.
Just peace
It could be that Azerbaijan is interested in an orderly withdrawal of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh in order to prevent images of atrocities against the Armenian civilian population. The call for sanctions against President Ilham Aliyev is now quite audible. High-ranking government representatives from the EU, the USA, Canada and other countries are trying to talk to his conscience and make it clear to him what consequences a further escalation could have.
However, it is questionable whether Aliyev is heeding the painful lesson that the Armenians learned in Nagorno-Karabakh: that resting on military victory in the early 1990s and refusing to compromise did not bring peace. They lived a life in a permanent state of war with the house ruins of their Azerbaijani neighbors in front of them. Armenian experts are now warning Aliyev: Only a peace that is fair for all will bring stability to the region.