Conflict in the Caucasus – Armenia and Azerbaijan are getting closer

As of: December 13, 2023 2:58 p.m

The two Caucasus states Armenia and Azerbaijan have exchanged prisoners on their common border. This is part of a rapprochement that could lead to a peace agreement early in the new year.

32 Armenians and two Azerbaijanis were exchanged on the border between the two states. Local media footage showed the men being handed over on a forest path. The swap is part of an agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan to normalize their relations, announced by both sides on December 7. This happened for the first time in a joint statement and without the mediation of another state.

As a goodwill gesture, Armenia also withdrew its bid to host the next UN Climate Change Conference and instead supported Azerbaijan. COP29 will take place in Baku in November 2024.

Negotiation over peace treaty

Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirsoyan said that the talks would also include the withdrawal of troops from the border. Azerbaijani armed forces have advanced into Armenian territory several times since spring 2021 and continue to occupy some strips along the common border.

The definition of the border, the mutual recognition of territorial integrity and transport connections throughout the region are to be fixed in a peace agreement that both sides have been negotiating since the end of the war in 2020. At that time, Azerbaijan had recaptured Armenian-occupied areas on its territory. In September, Azerbaijan also took Nagorno-Karabakh in a two-day military operation. The Armenians living there fled to Armenia.

President for life?

So far, the negotiations have taken place with the mediation of Russia, the USA and the EU. However, Aliyev in particular has questioned this since the capture of Nagorno-Karabakh. Apparently he wants to get the agreement signed in direct negotiations by the beginning of the year. According to observers, there is agreement on most points. Negotiations are already underway regarding the location of the signing.

On the day of the joint statement, Aliyev also called for an early presidential election. His New Azerbaijan party has already nominated him as a candidate. Its vice-chairman said on this occasion: “Everyone has long said that whoever liberates Karabakh will be our president for life.” He believes that every patriotic Azerbaijani is of this opinion.

In the past three weeks, the authoritarian leadership has taken even harder action than usual against independent forces. More than six journalists from independent media were arrested and sentenced to several months in pre-trial detention.

Jürgen Buch, ARD Moscow, tagesschau, December 13, 2023 5:41 p.m

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