Status: 02/24/2022 10:53 a.m
The war in Ukraine is having a massive impact on the oil market. For the first time in many years, the price of a barrel is well above $100 a barrel. Is a global oil shortage imminent?
As a result of the Russian attack on Ukraine, the oil price has risen massively. Brent North Sea oil for delivery in April rose at times by seven percent to $103.75 per barrel (159 liters). That was the highest level since 2014. This means that the price of Brent has already risen by around 30 percent this year after the price had already doubled last year.
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Last year, Russia produced an average of almost eleven million barrels of oil per day and thus accounted for more than a tenth of the world’s oil supply. Number one is the USA with just over eleven million barrels. The global number three is Saudi Arabia with almost nine million.
“Russian oil will disappear from the world market overnight if new sanctions are imposed,” warned economist Howie Lee of the OCBC bank. “OPEC cannot produce enough to fill this hole.”
Because even independently of the war in Ukraine, the trend has recently been observed that the global oil market is not exactly lavishly supplied. Despite the upturn in the economy and the sharp rise in prices, the oil cartel OPEC has stuck to its rather restrictive production policy in recent months and only announced a slight increase in production. OPEC thus gave oil prices strong support.
In addition, many market observers expect demand for oil to increase sharply if Russia were to further cut or even completely stop its gas supplies. Crude oil is an important substitute for natural gas.