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IEA: Significantly less Russian oil and weaker demand
Large buyers have announced that they intend to reduce or end their purchases of Russian oil. Photo: epa/dpa
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Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russian oil suppliers have had great difficulty finding buyers. What are the effects?
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects oil production in Russia to be significantly lower and oil demand to grow more slowly because of the Ukraine war.
Daily production in Russia could therefore fall by 3 million barrels (159 liters each) to 8.6 million barrels in the coming month, the IEA announced in Paris on Wednesday.
“The impact of a potential loss of Russian oil exports on world markets should not be underestimated,” the organization said. It is still too early to assess the concrete effects. However, the Ukraine war could lead to permanent changes in the energy markets.
IEA reduces its forecast
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Russian suppliers have had great difficulty finding buyers for their oil. A major reason are sanctions primarily by western countries. Large buyers such as some oil companies have announced that they intend to reduce or end their purchases of Russian oil.
According to the IEA, global oil demand is likely to continue to grow – albeit much more slowly than previously expected. Demand is expected to grow by 2.11 million barrels per day this year. So far, an increase of 3.23 million barrels per day had been mentioned.
As a result of the lower growth, the IEA also lowered its forecast for expected aggregate demand this year. Instead of an average demand of 100.6 million barrels per day, daily demand is now estimated at 99.7 million barrels. Both the significantly higher oil prices and the weaker economic growth, both a result of the Ukraine war, are likely to weigh on demand for oil, it was said in justification.