Commission chief von der Leyen: EU leaders want tougher course towards China

Shortly before her Beijing trip, EU Commission President von der Leyen announced that the EU would take a much tougher stance on China. She made it clear with which pace she wants to react to an increasingly aggressive economic policy.

For the head of the EU Commission, China’s position in the Ukraine war is pretty clear. Ursula von der Leyen has no illusions about which side the government in Beijing is on. “We saw a real show of friendship,” she said, speaking of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s visit to Russian President Vladimir Putin. “More than 1000 words” say that about Beijing’s vision of a new international order.

“China sees Putin’s weakness as an opportunity”

There are also no illusions as to which of the two rulers – Putin or Xi Jinping – will determine the rules of the new international order. The question is decided for von der Leyen: “China sees Putin’s weakness as an opportunity.”

It is obvious that the balance of power between Russia and China is being changed in favor of China. Basically, it was the other way around for almost 100 years, when Russia was ahead. But that’s in the past.

Clear recommendation to member states

A few days before her trip to Beijing in early April, the President of the Commission chose clear words. She recommended that all EU member countries take a realistic view of what China’s leader Xi Jinping wants. “He wants China to become the most powerful nation in the world,” she said.

There is a growing impression in the EU Commission in Brussels that the EU needs to reorganize its relations with China. First and foremost is the dependency on important raw materials. It is greatest for magnesium and rare earths. More than 90 percent currently come from China – either directly as raw materials or in prefabricated sub-products.

In any case, it is about supplies that are particularly important for the ecological transformation of the European economy. For example, for the growing need for batteries.

Reference to risks of German China business

Von der Leyen also pointed to the ongoing human rights violations by those in power in Beijing. In their estimation, they show that China is becoming more self-confident abroad and more repressive at home. “We must be very concerned about the serious human rights violations in Xinjiang,” she said.

Xinjiang is the Chinese province where the Uyghur Muslim group is oppressed. And it is the province where Volkswagen cars are produced. The top management of the VW Group has been emphasizing for years that there is no connection between local production and forced labor in the Uyghur camps.

But the fact that von der Leyen called the suppression of the Uyghurs by its name should be understood in Berlin as an indication of the risks of German business with China. Experts in some sectors consider Germany’s dependence on China to be dangerous.

Every third German car goes to China

The car industry is mentioned first in this context. It sells around every third car in China, and at Volkswagen it’s even around 40 percent. This increases the risk that precisely these trade relations will have to be severed – for example, if Washington and Brussels should impose harsh economic sanctions on Beijing in the event of a Chinese escalation towards Taiwan.

Then Germany’s dependence on China trade could become a problem, much like Germany’s dependence on Russian gas has become a problem for all of Europe.

Unambiguous expectations from Washington

Von der Leyen was in Washington just two weeks ago. It was made clear to the President of the Commission that Europe should better control its investments in China. And that means German investments in the first place – Germany’s trade volume with China is larger than that of the other large EU countries combined.