Commentary on the US presidential election campaign: Biden’s dangerous bet

US President Biden wants to prevent a second Trump term with his candidacy. But candidate Biden’s weaknesses could make Trump’s success possible. But there is a way out.

Joe Biden never tires of emphasizing that he is the best candidate to beat Donald Trump. Democracy is at stake – and he will save it.

A new edition of this duel has become even more likely after Super Tuesday – but almost no one in the USA is enthusiastic about it. Nikki Haley, Trump’s only remaining opponent, is absolutely right when she says: “The first of the two parties to retire its 80-year-old will win this election” – even though, to be fair, Trump is only 77.

The only problem for the Democrats is that Trump’s base will vote for him, no matter how old he is. Also completely independent of what he says or does. On the MAGA part of the Republicans, Trump is worshiped like a pop star – and that has enormous mobilizing power. And many Republicans who are skeptical of Trump will probably return to him in the end because for them too, Biden would be the greater evil.

It depends on a few states

Everything will depend on voter mobilization in a few states in November. Biden will win the “popular vote” again. But if a few hundred thousand voters in the crucial six “swing states” end up staying at home, that could cost him his victory. And Biden’s mobilization power is at least a shaky factor.

In Michigan, a state that Biden must win, more than 100,000 voters demonstratively walked out on him in protest against his stance in the Gaza war. And the same phenomenon was also observed on Super Tuesday. It is unclear how many of them will return to him in November.

And then there is his age. It doesn’t matter how fit and capable Biden actually is. What will be crucial is how he is perceived. And in a new survey, eight out of ten voters in the “swing states” say he is too old.

A cautionary tale – and an opportunity

A recent example should make it clear to Biden what consequences it can have if you miss the right time to say goodbye. He should remember Ruth Bader Ginsburg, liberal Supreme Court justice, icon of the left. Many had hoped that she, already in her 80s, would resign during the Obama era to allow him to appoint a new liberal justice. She stayed and died in 2020 during Trump’s term – who filled her lifetime seat with a young conservative judge. To this day, this remains a thorn in the side of the Democrats.

And there would still be a way out for Biden now. The primaries would have to go on as planned. But he could step aside shortly before the Democratic nomination convention in August. Actually, the voters whose votes he collects in the primaries should vote for him. But without him, the party conference would be an “open convention”, an open meeting in which other candidates could present themselves and campaign for the votes of the electorate.

The risks – and opportunities

Yes, that would be risky because the new person would hardly have time to advertise themselves in the country. But it could also be a great opportunity to spark enthusiasm on the part of the Democrats and give momentum to the election campaign. Someone younger, fresher would dominate the headlines for weeks. This is exactly what could mobilize those who are currently turning away from Biden. And mobilization within one’s own camp will, as I said, be the decisive factor.

Any other Democratic candidate would also get the anti-Trump votes that Biden is counting on. For example, California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Maybe these anti-Trump votes will ultimately be enough for Biden himself to win a second term. The race is still open. But it’s a wild game. Why take that risk when, as Biden himself says, this election is about everything?