Comment: Scholz is making a risky bet – and so is Merz

In the government statement, the Chancellor remained true to his sober line, but his mantra has cracked. Merz wants to take advantage of this – but his attack mode is also risky.

With this government declaration, Olaf Scholz made a bet. A bet that reassuring sentences will ultimately reach voters. Sentences like: Nothing will change in your everyday life. The message: Don’t worry, we’ll take care of it for you.

Even though the Federal Constitutional Court has just ripped out the government’s budget plans, the Chancellor apparently sees no reason to change anything in the way he does politics: keep calm, explain things soberly, work out small-scale solutions. Not sexy, not the big Saturday night show.

With exactly this strategy, Olaf Scholz managed to become Chancellor – and his advisors obviously think: Let’s try it again!

Disappointment instead of apology

The anticipation of the government declaration was enormous in advance. Many had demanded an apology, a jerk speech, something big. Scholz disappointed this expectation.

But who watches the whole speech in one go? Who has the time to watch the live stream from the Bundestag in the morning? Probably few. Most people notice a small section of the news. And if that says: Don’t worry – then Scholz’s bet might work.

Merz sees himself as the better chancellor

The opposition leader has also made a bet: Friedrich Merz in attack mode. He described the federal government as embarrassing in front of parliament. Scholz derogatorily called him a “plumber of power”. Called out to him: A chancellor’s shoes were a few sizes too big for him. Sharp polemics, not very statesmanlike.

At the same time, Merz left no doubt that he was the more capable statesman. The better chancellor. More perspective, more foresight, more plan. Supported by surveys that show the CDU clearly ahead, he believes he is only a few meters away from his big dream: finally being chancellor.

It’s a bet because Friedrich Merz has never been able to show in his long professional life that he can govern. After all, he’s never done it before. Not at the local level, not in North Rhine-Westphalia, not at the federal level. His political life’s work – it is that of an opposition politician, where pithy sentences count more than concrete decisions.

Scholz’s mantra is cracking

Both bets – Olaf Scholz’s and Friedrich Merz’s – involve a certain amount of risk, as is usual with betting. The Chancellor’s mantra that he can be relied upon has clearly cracked with the Karlsruhe ruling. Because he obviously misjudged the budget situation. This lost trust will be very difficult to restore, if at all.

But Friedrich Merz’s bet is also risky. His tough stance against reforming the debt brake, his self-confidence that he will do everything better once it’s his turn – all of this could come back to him like a boomerang. Great, the bet stands.