The Hesse CDU has been governing with the Greens for ten years. It is quite possible that the alliance will continue after the state elections. But a black-red coalition is also conceivable. Or is it enough for a traffic light?
After the election is before the election. And despite all the imponderables, there is some evidence to suggest that it is CDU Prime Minister Boris Rhein who has it. If the mood doesn’t change, he can probably choose a coalition partner.
The Union has been far ahead in the polls for weeks. In the ARD Hessentrend Ten days before the election, the CDU got 31 percent. The Greens, the current government partner, and the SPD are around 15 percentage points behind.
One of the two parties is likely to become the CDU’s junior partner: Given the current mood, it is not mathematically sufficient for other constellations. A change of power through a traffic light coalition is also likely to be close. But who wants to be with whom?
Black green
Despite the rosy prospects, the formation of an alliance will probably not be a dream come true for the CDU. She has led the state government for 25 years and with the Greens for ten years. The alliance of convenience worked without any rifts, even in difficult times. But in the end the cohesion faded.
The Green Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Al-Wazir disputed the position of his head of cabinet Rhein during the election campaign. The significant differences in content between the black-green government came to light primarily in domestic policy. The Greens publicly criticized the behavior of CDU Interior Minister Peter Beuth in dealing with the racist attack in Hanau.
Rhein, on the other hand, cannot have ignored the grumbling in his parliamentary group and at the grassroots level about the junior partner’s too much influence. Hesse’s Greens still tend to be on the left when it comes to civility. The CDU top candidate and incumbent did not make a clear commitment to continuing the alliance during the election campaign.
CDU and SPD
The Hesse CDU can be assumed to be closer to the SPD and FDP. But it is no longer enough for a coalition with the Liberals, traditionally the favorite partner of the Hesse CDU. That left the Social Democrats.
No matter how violently the SPD attacked the government in school policy or after police affairs, the overlaps are large and differences are not insurmountable. The long time in opposition has increased the SPD’s longing for participation and office. That could reduce the price that the CDU would have to pay in coalition negotiations.
But the relationship was severely strained, especially at the end of the election campaign, with an SPD election video that was later deleted. The clip brought Rhein closer to the AfD, and there was great outrage. And so some in the CDU were already asking themselves whether the SPD is as reliable as the Greens. SPD top candidate and Federal Interior Minister Faeser would almost certainly not be present at possible coalition talks. She had announced that she would only be available as Prime Minister.
The traffic light
For the SPD and the Greens, a traffic light coalition is the only chance of taking over government. “If you only have one more vote, do it,” warned Rhein during the election campaign and campaigned for Hesse to remain a “traffic light-free zone”.
Unlike Green Party politician Al-Wazir, SPD top candidate Faeser aggressively campaigned for the three-party alliance. It countered the bad image of the traffic light federal government with a comparatively smoothly operating counter model: the SPD-led traffic light coalition in the neighboring federal state of Rhineland-Palatinate.
However, a traffic light would be the least popular coalition option in the country. This comes from that HR HessenTrend from mid-September. The party that would only be the second force in such a three-party alliance could expect more influence and ministries from a two-party alliance with the CDU. There could also be a crunch between the FDP and the Greens: FDP lead candidate Stefan Naas presented himself as an “anti-Al-Wazir” in the election campaign, i.e. against the Green Economics Minister.
AfD serves itself
Purely mathematically, things look much better for another variant. For weeks, AfD state leader Robert Lambrou has been serving his party as a majority-getter for the CDU: this is the only way Rhine can enforce its bourgeois-conservative policies. The Hessian CDU rejects any cooperation with the party, which the state Office for the Protection of the Constitution sees as a right-wing extremist test case. The AfD is also not needed to form a government.
Surprise?
Because a few percentage points can change the situation, the surveys leave a little bit of imagination for a surprise. In addition to the FDP, the Left is also worried about remaining in the state parliament. The Free Voters, on the other hand, are still hoping to move in for the first time, with poll numbers of three to four percent. A three-party alliance made up of the CDU, FDP and Free Voters would then be at least conceivable. But that’s not likely.