According to all surveys, the CSU will also be the strongest force in this state election in Bavaria. It will probably then come down to a coalition with the Free Voters again. But there are other options too.
The CSU has been the prime minister in Bavaria since 1957 – in no other federal state has a party been in power for so long without interruption. For several decades, a CSU sole government was even standard: Horst Seehofer was the last top candidate to achieve an absolute majority, with him the party reacted from 2013 to 2018 without a coalition partner.
Seehofer’s successor Markus Söder then got 37.2 percent for the CSU. It is the worst result in decades for the CSU and not enough for another sole government. In the past five years, the Christian Socialists and the Free Voters formed the state government. And after the state election on Sunday?
Black-Orange: CSU and Free Voters
Both Prime Minister and CSU leader Söder as well as his deputy Hubert Aiwanger from the Free Voters have publicly stated countless times that they want to continue their alliance. Representatives of both parties like to talk about the “Bavarian coalition,” while the opposition prefers to talk about the “Spezi coalition.” The connection between the party colors is more obvious: black and orange.
The surveys indicate that the current Bavarian government alliance can once again count on a stable majority. In the BR-BayernTrend In mid-September, the CSU achieved 36 percent, the Free Voters climbed to 17 percent. 51 percent of those surveyed were satisfied with the work of the state government and 47 percent were dissatisfied.
In the ARD BayernTrend Ten days before the election the numbers were virtually identical. Here too, the CSU was at 36 percent, the Free Voters got 16 percent.
CSUSole government: 40 percent plus X
According to all surveys, a CSU sole government hardly seems possible anymore. For this, the CSU would need significantly more than 40 percent. So it would have to improve again significantly in the final spurt of the election campaign. Party leader Söder himself has repeatedly tried to dispel such expectations. Voters viewed sole governments with skepticism and as out of step with the times, he said in January.
Civilian three-party alliance: CSU, Free Voters and FDP
If there is not enough for the CSU and the Free Voters to reach a common majority, the FDP would come into play. However, the Liberals would have to remain in the state parliament, which according to all polls will be a close affair. All in all, such a three-way alliance is currently quite unlikely.
Black and yellow: CSU and FDP
During the election campaign, the Bavarian FDP positioned itself primarily as an alternative to the Free Voters. FDP top candidate Martin Hagen emphasized at almost every opportunity that his party would like to become the CSU’s new coalition partner.
The problem is that the Söder CSU doesn’t want to. All advances from the FDP were coolly rejected. And according to surveys, there is little mathematical evidence that it could be enough for black and yellow. Especially since the Liberals have not had good experiences with their only alliance with the CSU so far: after five years of joint state government with the CSU, they were thrown out of the state parliament in 2013.
Black green
“There will definitely be no black-green in Bavaria”: This sentence was part of every standard speech by CSU leader Söder during the election campaign. And even if the Greens would love to co-govern in the Free State, this time their chances are significantly worse than last time. In 2018 there were brief explorations after the election, but Söder has already ruled that out this time.
Söder’s new anti-green course, flanked by sharp attacks against the party, becomes particularly clear if you recall a three-year-old statement he made in “Spiegel”. “I believe that the black-green coalition would have great appeal because both political forces have an eye on the really big questions of our time, such as the reconciliation of ecology and the economy,” said Söder at the time about federal politics.
CSU and SPD
An alliance between the CSU and SPD after the state elections is just as unlikely as the black-green coalition in Bavaria. On the one hand, it might not be enough for such an alliance, which in Bavaria really cannot be called a “grand coalition”. In the ARD BayernTrend The SPD was recently at nine percent. On the other hand, Söder does not publicly show any sympathy for the black and red, for example when the Bavarian SPD gave him him in the wake of the Affair about the anti-Semitic leaflet in Hubert Aiwanger’s school bag offered collaboration.
“Farm Coalition”: Free Voters, SPD, Greens
A good ten years ago, a completely different variant briefly electrified the Bavarian opposition: What if the SPD, Free Voters and Greens joined forces against the CSU? At that time, SPD leading candidate Christian Ude visited Hubert Aiwanger’s farm in a highly publicized manner. But ultimately nothing came of it because the CSU won an absolute majority. From today’s perspective, a “farm coalition”, as the “Süddeutsche Zeitung” headlined at the time, is almost impossible: Aiwanger fights against the Greens at (almost) every opportunity.
An alliance without the CSU
This is a thought experiment by people who have absolutely nothing to do with the CSU: If a third of Bavarians vote for the Christian Socialists, then two thirds are not voting for the party. So wouldn’t an alliance without the CSU also be conceivable?
Conceivably, yes. The strongest faction does not automatically have to be the head of government. Otherwise, Franz-Josef Strauss, for example, would have become Chancellor in 1980. Nevertheless, a CSU-free coalition currently remains nothing more than a foolhardy thought experiment. Not only because the CSU, as the strongest force, traditionally claims to be the prime minister. An alliance without the CSU is also politically unimaginable – in the current state parliament, several parties would have to come together, including the AfD.