analysis
The Free Voters experienced the election evening on a high, while the CSU appeared to be under attack. The coalition agreement now shows: The CSU negotiated hard. But the Free Voters could soon become a threat to her.
There hasn’t been this much harmony between CSU Prime Minister Markus Söder and Free Voters leader Hubert Aiwanger for a long time: multiple handshakes, a friendly pat on the shoulder, and lots of mutual thanks. The signing of the coalition agreement on Thursday afternoon was the first joint appearance by the two most important Bavarian politicians in weeks.
The state elections in the Free State were less than three weeks ago, and shortly after the election evening, the manners were completely different: the party leaders accused each other of “girlish” (Aiwanger) and “pubescent” (Söder) behavior. The reason for the tense mood was a possible shift in power in the Free State. The CSU lost slightly in the election and ended up with 37.0 percent, while the Free Voters gained over four percentage points and reached 15.8 percent.
Free voters get another ministry
Both parties wanted to continue to govern together from the outset. However, the smaller coalition partner claimed more power for itself due to the result – a fourth state ministry was to be created. The Free Voters achieved this goal in the negotiations: In the future, they will lead the Digital Ministry in the person of 34-year-old Fabian Mehring. At first glance, a points win for Aiwanger. However, a closer look shows that the CSU has made a lot of demands for this concession.
On the one hand, the Digital Ministry is by far the smallest independent department – just 0.16 percent of the total budget is earmarked for it this year. Now the ministry is even losing further powers: the neat film department will be transferred to the State Chancellery in the coming legislative period. Quote from Söder: “The big dramas and the films – that’s what the State Chancellery does.”
On the other hand, despite the additional ministry, the Free Voters do not get any more seats at the cabinet table. In return, they must hand over their current state secretary position in the Ministry of Culture to the CSU. And this despite the fact that there is a lot to do in education: shortage of teachers, all-day care, integration. “It is of course difficult to have the presence that we had before,” admitted the new FW Education Minister Anna Stolz.
CSU is proving to be tougher Negotiating partner
The further departmental shifts also show that the CSU apparently negotiated hard. In the future, Aiwanger will also be able to take care of the Bavarian state forests and his heartfelt subject of hunting in the Ministry of Economics – he is a passionate hunter and forest owner himself. To do this, however, he has to hand over the billion-dollar tourism and catering industries to the CSU-led Ministry of Agriculture.
All in all, a high price for a digital department that, in addition to money, lacks enforcement skills.
There is a reason why the CSU does not simply grant the Free Voters more spotlight: both parties are vying for a similar voter base. If Aiwanger and Co. steal votes from the CSU in the 2025 federal election, the Christian Socialists could slip below the five percent threshold nationwide. Despite many direct mandates, the CSU would then be kicked out of the Bundestag – provided that the traffic light electoral law reform passed in March holds up before the Federal Constitutional Court.
First of all, the focus should be on government work in Bavaria. It is in the eye of the beholder who was able to assert the content of the agreement more – there were no insurmountable differences between the coalition partners anyway.
However, it is noticeable what is not in the coalition agreement. For example, a definitive “no” to a third runway at Munich Airport, as the Free Voters had wanted. Instead, there is talk of “different opinions,” meaning the moratorium is being extended. The FW’s request to lower the voting age in local elections to 16 is also not found in the contract.
The contract takes up many of Söder’s announcements
The Free Voters, on the other hand, have achieved a Bavarian allowance for the deaf and a driving license from the age of 16 in “special exceptional cases”. A whole range of the new points in the coalition agreement go back to Söder’s announcements in recent months – from the mandatory language tests for daycare children to the state wind energy company “Bayern Wind”. Even Söder’s demand to the federal government for an “integration limit” for migrants is in the paper – but this was not precisely quantified.
The plan to introduce a “constitutional quarter of an hour” in schools is surprising. Accordingly, Bavaria’s students should spend 15 minutes a week dealing with the Basic Law or the Bavarian Constitution. Education Minister Stolz should now work out the details (in which subject, from which grade and in which types of schools).
Preamble to “Principles of our Democracy”
And then there is the preamble to the treaty. After Aiwanger’s Erding speech (“Bring back democracy”) and the Leaflet affair the CSU had insisted on a common commitment. It literally says that we “resolutely oppose all forms of anti-Semitism, intolerance, xenophobia and racism”. And further: “Aware of our history and with deepest conviction, we acknowledge our historical responsibility and the principles of our democracy.” The fact that two coalition members have to negotiate these principles and put them in writing is at least remarkable.
In any case, Aiwanger assured that the preamble was created by “mutual agreement”: “No one is introduced there or affected anywhere between the lines.” He declared the argument with Söder to be over – but then added: “You never know what the future will bring. But we’re both trying hard.”
The Bavarian state parliament will meet for its constituent session next Monday, and Söder is expected to be re-elected as Prime Minister a day later. Söder only wants to announce the composition of the CSU ministries when the cabinet is sworn in on November 8th.