The CO₂ emissions of the world this year will almost reach the level of before the pandemic, report researchers of the “Global Carbon Project” initiative in a work that has not yet been assessed in the specialist journal Earth System Science Data, which will be unveiled at the World Climate Conference in Glasgow on Thursday. After the emission of CO₂ from fossil sources fell drastically by 5.4 percent in the first pandemic year of 2020, emissions should again be around 4.9 percent higher in 2021 than in the previous year, so that the decrease will be almost offset. That there would be a “rebound” was expected; However, the experts describe it as surprising that it is so clear.
The increase is mainly due to coal and gas, of which even more was consumed in 2021 than before the pandemic. The emissions from oil combustion, on the other hand, remained below the level of 2019, which is likely to be due to the still reduced mobility. If road and air traffic were to return to pre-pandemic levels and coal consumption remained high, a further increase in emissions in 2022 cannot be ruled out, according to the researchers.
If you look at the major emitters, the trends that existed before the pandemic for the most part continue: in both the EU and the USA, emissions from fossil sources rose by almost eight percent in 2021. However, it remained slightly below 2019 – so the short-term slump did little to change the long-term, slow downward trend.
Similarly, unfortunately with a movement in the other direction, it was the case with the world’s largest emitter, China, which contributes around 31 percent to global emissions: Here, emissions are now 5.5 percent above 2019 and are therefore also back to pre-pandemic Course. So the growth continues. The same is true in India, which after a sharp slump in 2020 and an even stronger increase in 2021 is now also above 2019. The rest of the world – which causes around 40 percent of fossil emissions – burned slightly less coal, oil and gas overall in 2021 than in 2019.
At the current emission level, the 1.5 degree budget will soon be used up
The situation is somewhat better for emissions from deforestation and changes in land use, such as turning meadows into fields: According to the Global Carbon Project, these have remained roughly the same over the past decade, while the uptake of CO₂ by soils and growing forests has even remained rose. If you offset the two against each other, the amount of CO₂ falls, which makes up around a tenth of the total emissions. However, there is great uncertainty here.
According to experts, the remaining CO₂ budget for current emissions will last for eleven years if the world wants to retain a 50 percent chance of adhering to the 1.5 degree warming limit; for two degrees it would be 32 years.
The report thus contains extremely sobering news: Instead of using the post-pandemic reconstruction to take the urgently needed change of course, the world is roughly back where it was in 2019, just a little closer to the abyss. Nevertheless, the researchers warn against despair now. “You have to resist the temptation to be discouraged and take things one by one,” said co-author Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia in a panel organized by the UK Science Media Center. New climate protection commitments by the states are now really important. And then you have to plan in order to implement them immediately.
In addition, the latest increase in emissions could not be as permanent as the drop in emissions caused by the pandemic. “We’ll see if it’s just some kind of sugar rush,” said Glen Peters of the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo, who was also involved in the work. It is possible that the many too dirty economic stimulus packages have pushed the use of fossil fuels, especially in the short term. It could also go back quickly.