50 years ago, the think tank Club of Rome shook the world up with its report “The Limits to Growth”. Today it is considered the most influential publication on the imminent overload of our planet. Based on a computer simulation, the research group warned at the time that if the global economy does not change, the economy, environment and quality of life would collapse – and sparked debates that are still having an impact today. Now there is a new report which was published in German on Tuesday.
“Earth for All” is about nothing less than the most important measures with which a future worth living for mankind would still be possible. It’s not too late – that’s what the report, which is the result of a two-year research collaboration of many experts, conveys very vividly. His descriptions are clear, the proposed solutions are easy to understand and often very specific.
Data on the state of the earth also plays a role in the new report, but above all it is about what concretely needs to be done to turn the rudder of human development around for the better. Humanity’s future depends above all on “five extraordinary about-faces”: ending poverty, eliminating glaring inequality, empowering women, building a food system that is healthy for people and ecosystems, and the transition to clean energy.
Lead authors include Sandrine Dixson-Declève, co-president of the Club of Rome, and Earth system scientist Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. For the report, the group used a computer simulation, the “Earth4All” model. From a variety of possible scenarios, two were chosen for the book, named Too Little Too Late and Giant Leap.
More equality and justice as the silver bullet for a future worth living in.
“Too Little Too Late” shows what could happen if the currently dominant economic system continues more or less as it has in the last 50 years. In contrast, “Giant Leap” asks what would happen if the economic system were reshaped through bold, extraordinary efforts to build a more resilient civilization. The potential developments of the coming decades are illustrated by the fictitious fate of four girls from China, the USA, Bangladesh and Nigeria who were born in 2020.
The experts in the work repeatedly emphasize that they see more equality and justice as the silver bullet for a future worth living in. An extreme level of inequality is extremely destructive, “even for the rich,” the warning said. “It favors conditions that are dangerous for everyone.”
Another factor that the experts consider very important: education that teaches critical thinking and complex systems thinking, for girls and boys alike. “Because the most important challenge of our time is not climate change, loss of biodiversity or pandemics,” the group said. “The most significant problem is our collective inability to distinguish between fact and fiction.” There is an industry of misinformation and disinformation on social media, which fuels the polarization of societies and contributes to “our inability to work together or even to agree on basic facts in the face of collective challenges”.
One of the challenges in the transformation of the global energy system is the “very real danger” of social destabilization in the course of the transformation of the energy system. “When the poorest majority are the hardest hit by rising energy costs, these people will protest against energy policies.”
“We know what you’re going to say now,” it says at the end of the speech. “The tasks are enormous. The obstacles are huge. The dangers are enormous. The time we have is short.” The most difficult tasks of the fastest economic transformation in history would have to be tackled in the first decade.
But no matter how discouraging the extent and necessary speed of the transformation may seem, there may be good news: In some areas, development may already be further ahead than expected and all that is needed is a nudge to finally get it going. As ambitious as the guide presented with “Earth for All” is, it is also “persistently optimistic”.