COP28 climate summit
Is oil and gas coming to an end? The most important questions at halftime in Dubai are still unanswered
At the COP28 climate conference, a woman in an animal costume protests for the rapid phase-out of fossil fuels
© Karim Sahib / AFP
Globally, 2023 was the hottest year on record. This is sobering news for the UN climate conference, which is entering its second and crucial week.
Shortly before the half-time break on Thursday, deliberations at the UN Climate Change Conference appear deadlocked on the central issue of abandoning fossil fuels. In speaks of a “sometimes cumbersome” negotiation process at the moment Dubai, the German climate representative Jennifer Morgan. In other areas, however, progress can certainly be seen.
Oil and gas exporting countries in particular are opposed to an end to fossils. Saudi Arabia will “absolutely not” agree to the climate conference’s demands, said its Energy Minister Abdulasis bin Salman. Dramatic warnings from UN Secretary-General António Guterres that “a burning planet cannot be saved with a fire hose made from fossil fuels” were initially ignored.
COP28: Role of the host in criticism
In Dubai, the role of the conference president Sultan al-Jaber, who is also the head of the state oil company of the United Arab Emirates, is viewed with suspicion. Statements attributed to him that an end to oil, coal and gas would “send the world back to the Stone Age” caused outrage, with which he also questioned scientific statements on this matter.
“I have always made it clear that everything we do focuses on science,” said a visibly touched al-Jaber, rejecting the allegations. A new negotiating text presented by his presidency on Tuesday now allows the opposing positions on fossils to stand side by side as options. However, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Paris goals cannot be met without the exit.
The demand, also discussed, to triple the expansion of renewable energy by 2030 is supported by almost two thirds of the almost 200 participating countries. In addition, the increase in energy efficiency is to be doubled from two to at least four percent per year.
However, some fear that ultimately only these two goals could be adopted, but not the end of fossils. If, on the other hand, massive pressure is not exerted by the EU and especially the particularly vulnerable states, “then I consider this to be the most likely scenario,” says Christoph Bals from Germanwatch.
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Climate fund as an “important decision”
WWF climate chief Viviane Raddatz sees it as a “promising start” that the conference made the new fund for climate-related damage operational right from the start. After Germany and the Emirates rushed forward with commitments of $100 million each, start-up capital of more than $650 million has now been raised.
With the participation of the Emirates, a state that is not one of the classic industrialized countries joined the circle of donors for the first time. Development Minister Svenja Schulze viewed this as an “important decision.” “I have never experienced a COP start like this,” said the German climate representative Jennifer Morgan on Wednesday in an interim assessment of Schulze’s praise.
According to Morgan, this breakthrough also has a positive impact on the negotiations on a new global target for international climate finance, which have so far been going under the radar. This is primarily about payments for adaptation to climate impacts.
From 2030 onwards, developing countries are demanding $400 billion per year for this area alone. So far there are 100 billion for climate protection and adaptation and, according to preliminary data, this only came together in 2022 with a two-year delay. However, final decisions on the new long-term goal will not be made until 2024.
There is still a lot of work ahead for the climate negotiators
What was also achieved in the first week of the mammoth conference in Dubai with its more than 88,000 accredited participants were concrete steps on the sidelines: During his appearance in Dubai, Chancellor Olaf Scholz praised the founding of the climate club by states that see themselves as pioneers in climate protection, as a great success.
There were further initiatives on the hydrogen economy and dealing with health risks in climate protection. When it comes to the “essential decisions”, Raddatz only expects “the big finale” shortly before the end at the beginning of next week. UN Climate Secretary Simon Stiell sees a lot of work still to be done by the negotiators. He criticized on Wednesday that the draft resolution currently available in Dubai was “a grab bag of (…) wish lists and a lot of posturing.”