climate study
Researchers predict “megaflood” that will flood half of California
The town of Elk Grove in the Sacramento area
© Bill_Dally / Getty Images
California suffers from drought and wildfires. But now a climate study is causing a stir that warns of an even greater catastrophe – a mega flood like in the Hollywood blockbuster.
They already have enough weather catastrophes in California. Heat, drought and forest fires are making the most populous US state more difficult every year. Now a climate study is causing a sensation in the USA, which warns of the extreme opposite: a “mega flood” of apocalyptic proportions.
According to the study, which was published in the scientific journal Science Advances, climate change has greatly increased the risk of extreme storms and the resulting “megafloods” in the region. “Despite the recent severe drought, California faces a widely underestimated risk of severe flooding,” write authors Xingying Huang and Daniel L. Swain.
Climate change has doubled California’s likelihood of suffering catastrophic flooding within the next four decades. This was shown by the data of the weather model used. And the probability will continue to increase as global warming progresses.
Is California running full?
The scientists understand a “megaflood” to mean particularly severe flooding, such as occurred in the St. Louis and Kentucky area this summer. In California, however, much larger areas and many more people could be affected. As a historical example, the study cites the “Great Flood” of 1861/1862, when a series of winter storms and heavy rains flooded almost all of California’s low-lying areas. According to the study, the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys were temporarily “transformed into a huge inland sea almost 300 miles long”. The water stayed for weeks. 4,000 people died at the time, every eighth house and a third of state property were destroyed, a quarter of the cattle did not survive.
Megafloods like this would return, study author Swain warns, and because of California’s geographic and geophysical conditions, they would be more frequent and worse. Global warming ensures that the atmosphere can absorb more water, for example from the nearby Pacific, which then discharges as heavy rain over certain areas. The ground cannot absorb the amounts of water so quickly, rivers turn into torrential floods.
In contrast to 1861, when 500,000 people lived in California, there are now more than 39 million residents who would be potentially affected. The authors of the study again predict the greatest destruction in the Central Valley, the large longitudinal valley of the state, in which the cities of Sacramento, Fresno and Bakersfield are also located. But Los Angeles and populous Orange County could also be hit hard, according to the models.
According to the study, a mega-flood in California could become the costliest natural disaster of all time, with economic costs of more than one trillion dollars. In order to be prepared for such scenarios as in the Hollywood disaster blockbuster, the researchers recommend that the responsible authorities urgently work on their emergency plans.
Sources: CNN / climate study