Global warming
The fight against the climate crisis: There are also positive developments
According to new forecasts, wind power is expected to account for around 15 percent of global electricity production by 2030
© Daniel Reinhardt/dpa
The Paris Climate Agreement was agreed in 2015 to combat the climate crisis. Since then, there has been repeated criticism of the lack of implementation. But there are also a few positive developments that the agreement has brought about.
Slightly better prospects when it comes to global warming
In Paris, the international community agreed to limit global warming to well below two degrees, or better yet to 1.5 degrees – compared to pre-industrial values. In 2015, humanity was on track to increase global warming to 3.5 degrees by 2100 due to the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal, according to an analysis at the time by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Such global warming would result in mass species extinction and the melting of glaciers and permafrost. As a result, sea levels would rise by several meters and many areas of the world would become uninhabitable.
Eight years after the Paris Agreement was negotiated, the threat scenario no longer looks quite so terrible. Thanks to the efforts of many countries to reduce their CO2 emissions, the earth is now heading towards warming of between 2.5 and around three degrees by the end of this century, according to a report from the UN Environment Program last week.
That is still far too much, warn climate activists and experts. But at least the “progress in switching to an energy system with lower emissions” is reflected, explains the IEA. For every tenth of a degree of warming that the global community prevents, it also reduces the catastrophic consequences of climate change.
To classify the 1.5 degree target as no longer achievable would be “stupid,” says German climate scientist Friederike Otto from London’s Imperial College. “It’s within reach if we want to keep it within reach.”
Peak in global greenhouse gas emissions is foreseeable
According to UN figures, annual emissions of climate-damaging greenhouse gases have increased further since the Paris climate conference, by nine percent. According to the latest data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), this increase has led to new records in the concentration of CO2, methane and sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere in 2022.
However, the increase in emissions has slowed. The Berlin Institute Climate Analytics recently predicted that the peak of global greenhouse gas emissions would be reached in 2024, perhaps as early as 2023. At least on this point, humanity would implement the recommendations of the IPCC, according to which the peak of emissions must be reached by 2025 at the latest in order to meet the Paris climate goals. However, global greenhouse gas emissions would have to be practically halved by 2030.
Before the Paris Agreement, the International Energy Agency predicted that CO2 emissions from the energy sector – a good 80 percent of total global CO2 emissions – could reach around 43 gigatons in 2030. The IEA has now lowered its forecast to 35 gigatons. This difference of eight gigatons corresponds to “the total emissions of the US and EU energy sectors”.
In the fight against the climate crisis: More green energy
Progress in limiting global warming since 2015 has been largely due to the expansion of three technologies: solar energy, wind power and electric mobility. “According to forecasts, the use of photovoltaics will have reduced greenhouse gas emissions by around three gigatons in 2030,” estimates the US Clean Energy Agency (OCED). “That roughly corresponds to the pollutant emissions of all the cars on the road worldwide today.”
According to new forecasts, photovoltaics and wind power are expected to account for around 15 percent of global electricity production by 2030. That would be seven times more wind power and three times more photovoltaics than the IEA forecast in 2015.
In 2015, it seemed utopian that larger fleets of electric cars would one day be on the roads. At the time, the IEA assumed that electric vehicles would account for less than two percent of all car purchases in 2030. Today she estimates this number to be more than a third, and development is progressing rapidly.
Global climate protests
Thousands demonstrate with Fridays for Future
“The use of clean energy technology has accelerated in unprecedented ways over the past two years,” says the IEA. Photovoltaic capacities increased by 50 percent during this period and sales of electric vehicles increased by 240 percent. According to the International Energy Agency, these advances are the result of falling costs and policy initiatives in many countries, particularly China, the USA and Europe.