There are now different degrees of extreme. No longer just extreme, but also “beyond extreme”. In the recently published “European State of the Climate” report, climate researchers describe a heat wave in the Atlantic off Ireland – there the surface temperature of the water was around five degrees above usual values last June.
Europe will also be hit hard by climate change in 2023, according to the study carried out by the EU Earth observation service Copernicus and the World Meteorological Authority (WMO). Millions of people have suffered from floods and heat waves, and the health effects are increasing. According to preliminary estimates, weather-related natural disasters caused damage amounting to 13.4 billion euros in 2023.
temperatures
According to WMO calculations, Europe experienced the warmest year in its history in 2023, on a par with 2020. Average temperatures in both years were 2.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. According to Copernicus, the year 2023 comes in second place behind 2020, with temperatures on average being around 0.15 degrees lower. The marginal difference can be explained by a slightly different database.
It was warmer than average almost everywhere in Europe, with the exception of Scandinavia, Iceland and parts of Greenland. Temperatures rose the furthest in the Arctic.
In summer in particular, the extremes varied greatly depending on the region. In June it was initially hot in the northwest of the continent, but the Mediterranean region received an above-average amount of rain. This pattern reversed in July: at its peak on July 23, around 40 percent of southern Europe was affected by severe, very severe or extreme heat stress. Extreme heat stress means that the perceived temperature is more than 46 degrees Celsius.
“23 of the 30 most severe heat waves in Europe have occurred since 2000,” says WMO climate researcher Andrew Ferrone, who was involved in the report. Since then, heat-related mortality has also increased significantly.
There were an estimated 70,000 premature deaths due to heat in Europe in 2022, more recent figures are not available. “As 2023 was hotter than 2022, it is likely that the number of heat-related deaths in Europe last year was more than 70,000,” says climate researcher Friederike Otto from the University of Oxford.
From a global perspective, 2023 was the warmest year since records began, as the WMO had already confirmed in January. On about every other day, temperatures were above the 1.5 degree mark targeted in the Paris Climate Agreement.
seas
The seas bordering Europe were warmer than ever in 2023, with the surface temperature 0.55 degrees Celsius above average. In July and August, marine heat waves spread across the Mediterranean, with water temperatures sometimes more than five degrees above normal. The heat can cause serious damage to many marine organisms.
Exceptionally high water temperatures have also been reported in other regions of the world for months. “Sea surface temperatures have been at record levels for a year now,” says Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Service. The main reason for this is undoubtedly the high greenhouse gas emissions.
Precipitation
On land it was not only exceptionally hot, but also wetter than usual – overall, around seven percent more precipitation fell in Europe in 2023 than average. Slovenia was particularly hard hit in August, where around 1.5 million people were affected by floods. In parts of Greece, more rain fell in one day in September than in an entire year.
“A warmer atmosphere is a thirstier atmosphere, capable of extracting more moisture from a region,” says Richard Allan, professor of climate research at the University of Reading. The excess water could fall elsewhere in the form of more violent storms. “This leads to greater fluctuations and wilder swings between wet and dry days, seasons and years, which are difficult to plan for and manage,” says Allan.
Overall, the rainfall was extremely unevenly distributed: while it was unusually wet in the Netherlands, northern Germany and Denmark, for example, the Iberian Peninsula suffered from a drought in the spring.
Forest fires
Large fires destroyed forest areas in Portugal, Spain and Italy. The largest forest fire in EU history to date broke out in Greece in the summer, affecting around 96,000 hectares. In total, half a million hectares burned in the EU – roughly equivalent to the area of London, Paris and Berlin combined – and is the fourth highest figure since records began. The forest fires often coincided with droughts.
Renewable energy
A bright spot in the European climate report: In 2023, renewable energies provided more electricity than ever before, accounting for 43 percent of demand. This not only has to do with the expansion of solar systems and wind turbines, but also with the meteorological conditions: many hours of sunshine boosted photovoltaic yields in southern Europe, for example, while stormy weather from October to December increased the utilization of wind systems.
Why Europe stands out
The world’s regions are warming to different degrees: According to the US atmospheric agency NOAA, Asia is at the forefront, while the WMO and Copernicus see Europe in first place. Copernicus deputy head Samantha Burgess cites three main reasons for this: Firstly, Europe’s proximity to the Arctic, where temperatures are also rising rapidly. In addition, Europe is dependent on extensive ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream. If the oceans warm up, the continent will feel it quite directly. Third: “European legislation has improved air quality,” says Burgess. “This also means that more solar radiation hits Europe.”
With material from the British Science Media Centre