In recent years there has been some reason for optimism, at times downright euphoria, about saving the climate. Renewable energies are getting cheaper and cheaper, wind and sun are the cheapest energy sources in some locations. In addition, the climate issue has finally made it into society’s consciousness, not least thanks to the Fridays for Future movement. And under the umbrella of the Paris Agreement, a large number of countries have reached net-zero targets, so they want to stop dumping CO₂ in the atmosphere in the long term – which is the key condition for stabilizing the climate. All of these are huge advances. It wasn’t long ago that one hardly dared to dream of all this.
But that alone is not enough. It just means a historic opportunity is upon us. Mankind now has the real possibility of stopping warming in the foreseeable future, possibly even at an almost tolerable level of no longer 1.5, but at least around two degrees. This is fantastic news, just a few years ago it looked all but hopeless. Unfortunately, the scenario that this opportunity will be wasted until it is finally too late for many things cannot be ruled out. How do you explain that to your children, nieces or nephews? How about the grandchildren? Just because this is a somewhat hackneyed question doesn’t mean it’s easy to answer.
The third part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report will be published on Monday. After the first two parts on the state of the climate and options for adaptation, we now turn to measures to combat climate change. The report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes no predictions, it merely maps the future: if the world goes this way or that, it could turn out this way or that way.
Never before has more coal been burned than in 2021
It’s always worth reading these reports, but they don’t bring big surprises. The essentials are known, the problems are too. Some things can already be seen if you only look at the global energy-related CO₂ emissions for the past year.
Never before has more electricity been produced from renewables worldwide than in 2021. But what has that achieved? Despite everything, there was the highest level of emissions ever: A good two billion tons more CO₂ were emitted than in 2020, of course also due to the ebbing of the pandemic. That’s almost three times the German emissions, just on top of that – so much for “green reconstruction”. And if traffic were back to normal, the numbers would look very different. Particularly frightening: Never before has more coal been burned worldwide than in 2021, a main reason for the high emissions. You don’t need an IPCC report to see that this path leads to the abyss.
But these figures also make it clear what needs to change. They show that “the renewables will fix it” is not enough as a climate strategy. Of course, green energies must be expanded, especially in countries like Germany faster than before. But coal, oil and gas won’t just be so friendly and go away. You have to actively, systematically and with the necessary foresight ensure that they are pushed out of the market quickly, goodbye.
Absolutely allowed: more pragmatism
The most efficient and elegant method for this are CO₂ prices such as in European emissions trading, but until such prices can be enforced worldwide and for all areas, a lot of diesel can still go through the exhaust, you shouldn’t wait for that. Under certain circumstances, it can also make sense to buy your way out of the fossil-fuel age, as Germany did in some cases with the coal compromise – whether that wouldn’t have been cheaper is another question. Or you decree the exit, as China does in parts. Pragmatism is absolutely allowed here. But you should be aware: It doesn’t work on its own.
The Ukraine crisis in particular shows Europe how difficult, expensive and lengthy such exit processes can be, and how bitterly one regrets it if one did not start on time. It will be a tour de force to replace Russian energy imports. The energy system is extremely sluggish, and it’s not easy to make up for years of neglect, not even with Putin breathing down your neck.
It may be that the crisis will help to save energy and accelerate the switch to renewables, but that will take time. It is all the more important to finally really think strategically from the end. If Germany is to be climate-neutral by 2045, then the appropriate infrastructure must be in place now. Cars, heating and much more must run on electricity instead of oil or gas, and it must be completely renewable pretty soon. It’s no different globally.
Conversely, the energy transition, urgent as it is, cannot solve all geopolitical problems; that would be asking too much. New dependencies will emerge, and the liquefied gas deal with Qatar is unlikely to be the last deal with a questionable regime. A simulation of the British economist recently showed that in 2040, even with committed climate protection, more than half of the global energy-related raw material expenditure is likely to go to autocracies – then more for copper, cobalt or lithium, not to mention hydrogen.
With all justified optimism, one cannot expect that climate change will take care of itself, and then everything will be bullshit. A huge piece of work remains; it will be painful, exhausting, complicated, full of conflict and very expensive – and many things, but probably not everything, will be better afterwards than today. But what is the alternative? Exactly.