Global dominance
Ex-cyber chief of the Pentagon warns: “We have no real chance against China”
The Chinese military is much further advanced than the US when it comes to AI, argues the former Pentagon software chief
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The US and China have been fighting for global supremacy for years. However, a former senior US Defense Department official sees a clear winner: China.
The PC as we know it, the Internet, the smartphone: for decades it was almost taken for granted that the most groundbreaking technologies came from the USA. But that could change very soon, warns Nicolas Chaillan in a recent interview. He expects China to dominate the world over the next few years. And says: The race is lost.
Chaillan knows what he’s talking about: He was the Defense Department’s first software chief. He resigned from his position a week ago – because the changes within the US Department were simply too slow for him. In his first interview after the end of his Pentagon career, he drew a hard balance to the “Financial Times”. “In 15 to 20 years at the latest, we will no longer be a competitor for China. That is already certain. In my eyes, it is already over,” he told the newspaper. And it’s the USA’s own fault.
Wrong focus as a reproach
Because while the US put its many military billions in classic war material, China would have striven for superior power in cyber space. “In the end it doesn’t really matter whether it takes a real war or not,” Chaillan is convinced. Although there have been investments in fighter jets like the new F-35 billion, the ability to defend against cyber attacks is “at kindergarten level,” he complains. He tried to change that for three years. And finally given up in frustration. “There are tons of reasons to be upset about it.”
In terms of artificial intelligence and machine learning in particular, China has long overtaken the US, he argues. Building up a competence here was much more critical for the USA than amassing even more potential for destruction. In fact, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently admitted that “there is an urgent need to work” on developing artificial intelligence capabilities. The money made available for this, however, shows the priorities: There should be 1.5 billion dollars, spread over five years. By comparison, the US defense budget is $ 700 billion – this year alone.
Chaillan believes that the money is simply being spent wrongly. The procurement costs are extremely high, a lot of money is seeping into the bureaucracy. And: The legislation would also make competition with China more difficult.
Reluctance to use AI
In fact, there is considerable reluctance to use artificial intelligence in the US compared to China. Both government agencies and private companies attach great importance to being aware of the dangers of technology and to creating a moral implementation. For some companies like Google, this also includes not wanting to provide artificial intelligence for combat missions.
Challain sees this as an important reason for the resulting backlog. In China, the technology corporations are simply asked by the state to cooperate, the regulation and the inhibitions are smaller, the progress is correspondingly greater. But should the US also think in order to be able to keep up? How he would resolve the moral dilemma that arises, the ex-military does not reveal.
How great is the danger really?
It is undisputed that China poses an increasing threat in cyberspace. Chinese hackers are said to have been involved in the last US election, accused of being responsible for the unprecedented attack on Microsoft’s Exchange server earlier this year. In the USA, the allegations go so far that the use of Chinese technologies, for example by Huawei, is banned in security-relevant areas, and even the Tiktok video service was forbidden on service devices for a long time.
However, the idea that China is already an AI superpower is not shared by all experts. It is true that China publishes most of the world’s studies on artificial intelligence, argues “Bloomberg” columnist Tim Culpan. Most, however, refer to visual analysis to aid the Chinese surveillance state. When it comes to data analysis and other use cases, the US continues to lead – or at least US companies.
And there are – even – considerably more of them: According to the latest “State of AI” report, the USA has 103 AI companies with a valuation of over one billion dollars, more than three times as many successful companies in this area like China. The race does not seem to have been finally decided yet.
Sources: Financial Times, Bloomberg, State of AI