Different scenarios
High losses are certain: Researchers are playing through potential wars between China, Taiwan and the USA
Taiwanese military conducts artillery drills
© Johnson Lai/AP/DPA
China is provoking military maneuvers off the coast of Taiwan. And Taipei is arming itself. A new war seems more and more likely. What would the consequences be?
At first glance, the simulation looks like a community game. US experts from the military, the US Department of Defense and the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) roll out the course of the war between China, Taiwan and the US on a game board with a map of the western Pacific. It really isn’t a game.
Because the political situation in the South China Sea is getting worse and worse. The military provocations make a Chinese invasion seem quite realistic. Provoked by US visits to Taipei, the economic powerhouse has recently held several military maneuvers off the coast of Taiwan. They culminated in the launch of ballistic missiles – one of the largest demonstrations of power since the Taiwan “missile crisis” in the 1990s.
Now China continues to provoke with planes and ships that patrol the straits of the Taiwan Strait or even penetrate the Taiwan Air Surveillance Zone (ADIZ). In Taipei, the government is already planning to strengthen the military.
The course of the war is rolled
Are these preparations for a Chinese invasion? That is not absolutely certain. The emergency is rehearsed anyway. That’s why the American researchers put their heads together over a game board to roll out different war scenarios. They want to find out how a war between China and Taiwan with the support of the United States could end.
22 scenarios are to be played through. In the simulation, the researchers use two boards with maps of the western Pacific, on which China, Taiwan and Japan are marked. Game pieces are moved, elements are added randomly with dice. Computer models and combat result tables complete the whole thing.
The researchers are working from the most likely to the extreme scenario, as the head of the US-China war project, Mark Cancian, has explained to the “Standard”. 18 rounds have already been completed. The final report is due to appear in December. But it is already clear: high losses are certain.
The simulations are based on information about the military equipment of China, the United States and Taiwan that has been published so far. The researchers also expect the weapon systems to be purchased by 2026. Nuclear warheads and a possible personnel problem are not taken into account. According to media reports, Taiwan will not have enough pilots until 2026 to be able to use all the fighter jets ordered by then.
US and Taiwan are suffering – but China is suffering more
In all scenarios that have been played out so far, Taiwan has managed to defend itself against China with the help of the USA – but not without having to accept various losses. According to the calculations, the US armed forces will lose a large part of their overseas fleet. The planes at the air bases also fall victim to the Chinese troops. Depending on the course of the war, up to 900 US planes could be destroyed. That would be half the capacity of the Navy and Air Force.
But: “I would say that in most scenarios, the Chinese fleet suffers a lot more because it is very exposed,” Cancian estimates in an interview with “Insider”. Counterattacks by Taiwan and the Allies could destroy the Chinese amphibious and overseas fleets and sink around 150 ships in the process.
The experts can already derive initial military recommendations for the USA and Taiwan from the previous simulations. For the United States, Cancian recommends investing in submarines and bombers with long-range missiles. In addition, the expert advises building shelters in Guam and Japan to protect aircraft, as most aircraft would be destroyed on the ground. According to the expert, Taiwan should increasingly use anti-ship missiles instead of combat ships and jets.
Worst-case scenarios are yet to come
The panel plans to present its final report in December. This is rather unusual, because such simulations are usually kept under wraps. In the end, the paper should also state how many human victims there could be in a possible Chinese invasion and how great the economic damage would be.
But first, the worst-case scenarios have to be run through, according to Cancian. The experts want to examine, for example, how the war would go if the United States were distracted by the Ukraine war. Another case is still under investigation as to how Taiwan would operate under Chinese sabotage actions. Strikes on the Chinese mainland and the role of Japan are also taken into account.
However, it is already clear that “considerable fighting in Taiwanese cities” would lead to serious damage to infrastructure, such as destroyed ports and airfields. According to the preliminary forecast, this could permanently weaken the Taiwanese economy.
Sources: Center for Strategic and International Studies, Wall Street Journal“The standard“, insider, Bloomberg