China and Iran: distrust among friends

Iran’s President Raisi has made a state visit to China. Chinese President Xi swears by friendship and “unwavering cooperation”. But relationships are not easy.

China rolled out the red carpet for Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. For 12 minutes, state television reported on Raisi’s reception in Beijing in the main news.

Gun salutes, national anthems, walking the honor formation in the Great Hall of the People. And warm words from the highest authority: China’s head of state and party leader Xi Jinping swears by the “unshakeable cooperation”, the friendship and the “strategic partnership” with Iran.

Raisi can use such support: Iran has been even more isolated internationally since the protests began there last fall and the crackdown on the demonstrators.

“Iran has few alternatives”

China is the most important trading partner, mainly buying Iranian oil – apparently in some cases through third countries. A 25-year cooperation agreement has been in place since last year. Vital for Iran’s survival.

“It’s a completely unbalanced relationship and you can see that in the hard economic facts,” says Raffaello Pantucci, China specialist at the Singapore think tank RSIS. China gets fossil energy, investment opportunities in Iran – but there are other places too. “In turn, Iran has few alternatives because of the sanctions imposed by the West.”

Good relations with Russia

Chinese state television does not talk about unequal partners, but rather emphasizes what they have in common. Xi Jinping and Raisi reject the alleged hegemony of other countries – meaning the USA. They oppose interference in the internal affairs of other countries. Sanctions are also meant, be they directed against Iran, China or Russia.

As in general, both countries maintain good relations with Moscow. China backs Russia in Ukraine war. Iran is to supply Russia with armed drones – the three countries are moving closer together militarily. A good year ago, there were joint naval maneuvers in the northern Indian Ocean for the third time.

tensions between states

Some observers are already talking of an anti-Western Russia-China-Iran axis. “That is the key component that holds all three together, that they are against the West,” says security expert Pantucci. You support each other. “But deriving an axis from this, a clear political direction, a common approach, is probably wrong,” he explains. Because there are also various subliminal tensions.

Russia, says Pantucci, fears that China might eventually get closer to the United States – “the West” is too important for the Chinese economy. Iran fears falling into a Chinese debt trap. And China not only has good relations with Iran, but also with Tehran’s nemesis Saudi Arabia. Behind the state-supporting images from Beijing there is also a great deal of distrust and different interests.