In the new elections to the Spanish parliament, a defeat for the minority government of Prime Minister Sánchez is becoming apparent. The Conservatives have a good chance of becoming the strongest force, but nothing is clear.
Taking a deep breath was a challenge on Saturday before the fateful election in Spain. The temperatures were high in many places, sometimes oppressively humid. The incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez (PSOE), his conservative challenger Alberto Nuñez Feijóo (PP), and the Minister of Labor Yolanda Díaz, who is leading the new left-wing alliance “Sumar”, did their best – each in their own way.
Images of staged serenity: Sánchez was out and about with his mountain bike in the mountains near Madrid, Feijóo could be observed in telegenic down-to-earthness on a walk including a visit to a greengrocer in A Coruña in north-west Spain. Díaz, on the other hand, had his picture taken with friends enjoying a decidedly casual aperitif and then went to the (air-conditioned) cinema to see the new “Barbie” film. Just don’t show nerves.
More than 37 million eligible voters
There is a lot at stake: Sánchez wants to stay in office, Feijóo wants to get him out of there and would prefer to be able to govern alone, and Díaz would be only too happy to replace Sánchez’ previous left-wing coalition partner “Unidas Podemos” with her new electoral alliance. The voters decide whose dream will be fulfilled and whose dream will be shattered.
More than 37 million Spaniards are called upon to elect a new parliament today, including more than 1.6 million first-time voters. They are particularly hotly contested.
logistic Challenge heat
Every election is a logistical tour de force, and there is also the factor of heat: the temperatures are said to reach 40 degrees Celsius again in some places. In addition to ballot papers and ballot boxes, fans and water bottles were also delivered in large quantities to many polling stations so that everyone, voters and election workers, got through the election process really well.
Almost 2.5 million votes were received by postal voting by the end of the Friday afternoon deadline – the highest number since the 2008 parliamentary elections.
Can the winner of the election also govern?
Spain’s early general election raises many questions. For example, whether whoever wins at the end of the hot election night will also be able to govern. In the numerous polls that recently attempted to reflect the voters’ favor in Spain, the conservative and prime minister aspirant Feijóo led the incumbent Sánchez.
But for a sole majority for the conservative People’s Party (PP) it should not be enough. In no survey does it get more than 156 seats in Congress. For an absolute majority, however, it would have to get at least 176 seats, otherwise it would be dependent on a partner.
VOX could bring conservatives into government
Only one scenario would suffice to form a government: the conservatives would have to join forces with the right-wing party VOX. Their top candidate Santiago Abascal makes no secret of his government ambitions at the national level – in three of the 17 autonomous communities in Spain, comparable to the German federal states, and in more than 100 town halls, the conservative People’s Party already governs in coalitions with VOX.
It would certainly not be a love marriage, at least not from Feijóo’s point of view, who actually wants to be a candidate of the center, a mediator and reconciler. A Vice Premier Abascal would be difficult to imagine. His party wants to abolish abortion rights, curtail the rights of minorities and, during its rise since 2018, has attracted a potpourri of Covid and climate change deniers, militant anti-abortionists, avowed fascism fans and PP supporters for whom the conservative People’s Party has become too “soft”.
Left dream couple Sánchez-Díaz?
Sánchez and Díaz are jointly campaigning against this scenario and make no secret of the fact that they want to continue governing together, albeit without “Unidas Podemos”.
This explains why one name is missing from the “Sumar” list, which includes 20 small and mini-parties as well as the entire left: Irene Montero, the previous Minister for Equal Opportunities. She is considered by many to be responsible for the fiasco surrounding the unsuccessful reform of sexual criminal law. The so-called “Only Yes is Yes” law was intended to be a feminist milestone and had to be subsequently amended with the votes of the opposition – the unintended consequence of the reform had been reduced prison terms and early release of convicted sex offenders. Unidas Podemos was also punished in the local and regional elections at the end of May.
Left politics without internal quarrels?
The common message from Diáz and Sánchez seems to be: We offer left-wing politics without ideological trench warfare. In the previous minority coalition, the Social Democrats and Unidas Podemos had repeatedly gotten caught up in each other. Be it the issue of arms deliveries to Ukraine, projects that even some feminists from the ranks of the PSOE went too far (e.g. the controversial possibility for women to take sick leave if they have severe menstrual problems) or the initially botched reform of sexual criminal law.
“Sumar” with the popular Díaz at the helm could end up tipping the scales. Because although Díaz only officially formed the platform at the beginning of June, “Sumar” is currently in a close race with VOX for third place. That would make a new edition of the left-wing minority coalition led by the Socialists conceivable – at least in theory – but with a change of cast: “Sumar” would replace “Unidas Podemos”, a bit like in a soap opera. Spanish politicians often remind us of this anyway.
Last Exit Chaos?
The initial situation is therefore complicated, and the outcome of the election is anything but clearly predictable. If none of the possible constellations ultimately suffice for a stable government, possibly with the support of other parliamentary groups, or if the conservative Feijóo refrains from forming a coalition with VOX, it could ultimately mean for Spain: After the election is before the election. It would not be the first time.