analysis
Status: 09.10.2022 23:16
The CDU ends up far behind the SPD in the state elections in Lower Saxony. Because the hoped-for settlement with the traffic light did not come. The homegrown problems remain.
It could have been so nice for the CDU – to reconquer the large area of Lower Saxony and thus get further tailwind in the federal government.
But the hoped-for settlement with the traffic lights in Lower Saxony did not come – instead, the worst result for the CDU in Lower Saxony for more than 60 years. The CDU must be particularly hurt by the good result of the AfD, the apparent lack of traction of its party leader and losses in some of its core competencies.
In the evening, the official statement from the representatives of the CDU is that the reasons for the election debacle lie in Lower Saxony. It was not possible to score points as a junior partner in the grand coalition against a strong incumbent, although the state election campaign was dominated by federal political issues.
Reasoning doesn’t cover up the homegrown problems
The reasoning is logical, but cannot cover up the home-grown problems of the CDU. With such poor approval ratings for traffic lights, the Union should have been more than 30 percent nationwide, some in the party say behind closed doors. Party leader Friedrich Merz was expected to have more traction. But the voters don’t seem to trust the CDU as a party to hold the chancellorship again. And even the rising polls for CSU boss Söder cannot leave Merz cold in terms of power strategy.
As far as the AfD is concerned, the CDU is still in a dilemma. Dealing with the issue of migration realistically and critically without playing into the hands of the AfD has never been easy for the party. Merz’ recent statements on the subject have not made it any easier.
Alarm bells in the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus
The substantive construction sites remain: energy security was one of the main topics of this election campaign – and when asked which party is most likely to be able to secure the energy supply, the CDU is just one percentage point ahead of the SPD with 25 percent.
When asked who is most likely to be able to advance the economy, she is only two percentage points ahead of the SPD with 32 percent. “Securing jobs and creating new ones” only trust 28 percent of the voters of the CDU. The SPD is far ahead with 35 percent. The alarm bells must be ringing in the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus when the CDU weakens so much on this issue under a party leader who is also experienced in business.