TV review
Sunday talk
Middle East expert at Caren Miosga: Israel’s retaliation is coming – but not towards Iran
Middle East expert Guido Steinberg was Caren Miosga’s guest.
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After the Iranian attack on Israel, there is a risk of conflagration in the Middle East. Middle East expert Guido Steinberg does not expect an Israeli attack on Iran – but does expect a reaction.
Marko Schlichting
After an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus on April 1st Iran attacked Israel directly from its own territory for the first time on Sunday night. Israel successfully defended itself with the help of the USA, Great Britain and Jordan.
The Iranian attack caused outrage around the world. Last night, the war cabinet in Jerusalem broke up after several hours of deliberations without a decision. Former defense minister and cabinet member Benny Gantz had previously announced retaliation. US President Joe Biden rejected a military counterattack.
Did Iran just want to warn?
In a special edition of the ARD talk show “Caren Miosga”, Middle East expert Guido Steinberg assumed that Iran had not planned for Israel to be damaged by the attack with drones and missiles. The Iranian government’s calculation: “It initially wanted to show a very decisive reaction for its own clientele.” That was the message to the inside.
“The message to the outside world was: We don’t want a big war. That’s why we’re shooting down all sorts of missiles here, but we don’t actually want them to cause major destruction.” Iran primarily targeted military targets in order to avoid the death of civilians. Above all, Iran wanted to signal to Israel and the USA that the attack was not intended to escalate the Middle East war.
FDP General Secretary Bijan Djir-Sarai isn’t quite so sure. He believes the Iranian leadership knew what it could do to Israel. “But at the same time, in my view, they also wanted to test what strategic defense options or capabilities exist in Israel or in the Israeli army.” The war in the Middle East has entered a new dimension, said the FDP politician. So far, Iran has only waged the war against Israel indirectly – with supporters such as Hezbollah and Hamas. “I think it is very realistic that Iran’s representatives in this region will continue this war in a different form, but on behalf of the mullahs in Iran.”
Is there a threat of an Israeli counterattack?
That is why Middle East expert Steinberg believes it is unlikely that Israel will launch a counterattack on Iran. Steinberg: “There is a debate in the Israeli military and in Israeli politics as to whether a deep strike against Hezbollah is now appropriate, because the argument is now there: Hezbollah is attacking anyway.
If Israel strikes back now, hardly anyone could complain.” Such a preemptive strike could happen in a few weeks or a few months. But the pressure from the war cabinet for such a strike will now become ever higher, said the expert.
In this case, Djir-Sarai rules out military aid from Germany. Nobody in the Middle East wants that, he says. Israel would be helped if the West finally understood the danger posed by the Iranian regime.