Moscow seems to multiply the signs of weakness on the ground. After the victorious Ukrainian counter-offensives, Russia is working on different ways to respond. None seem really effective in keeping their conquered territory. This Monday, this admission of weakness resulted in numerous strikes by kamikaze drones, which left at least eight dead in kyiv and other Ukrainian regions. A week earlier, the Russian army had already struck the capital and caused extensive damage to strategic infrastructure and civilian targets, such as a children’s playground. Its difficulty on the ground had previously resulted in referendums for the annexation of four regions organized in haste or even the mobilization of several hundred thousand men to come and swell the ranks of the army.
These strikes by Shahed 136 drones, of Iranian manufacture, then serve to “show that we are active, that we are doing things, by striking the population, these are weapons that scare, but these weapons are not very effective in the field”, sums up for 20 minutes Michel Goya, former naval colonel, historian and strategist. It is indeed an inexpensive weapon, around 20,000 euros per unit, but also unsophisticated and capable of carrying around forty kilos of explosives, “or 10% of what a ballistic missile carries”, explains the specialist.
Why is Russia using these weapons at this stage of the conflict?
The use of these Shahed 136 demonstrates certain shortcomings of the Russian arms stock. “The Russians are starting to run out of missiles and are not advancing on the ground, so they are continuing the rear strikes with what they have in stock”, develops Michel Goya. Indeed, they could also use planes, and do more damage, but, in addition to drones, they released old anti-aircraft missiles from the 1960s, “they use missiles against purpose”, adds to 20 minutes Isabelle Dufour, director of strategic studies at Eurocrise. “They are firing on all cylinders to hit Ukrainian territory,” summarizes Michel Goya.
In difficulties on the ground, and in particular in the region of Kherson, the army thus wishes to maintain the pressure on kyiv, “but that will not change much in the course of the war”, slices the historian. This type of drone is indeed programmed with GPS coordinates and aims at a specific target. Thus, on the front, he cannot follow moving troops. On the other hand, these strikes allow three things for Moscow, according to Isabelle Dufour: they target the internal politics of Russia and serve to caress in the direction of the hair the hard wing of the regime, to meet the demands of the Russian dignitaries “who push Vladimir Putin hardening”. Moreover, these strikes in Ukrainian cities serve to terrorize the population. “He has already done this from the start in his speech, talking about chemical and nuclear weapons, it is the Russian way of taking cities, like what has already happened in Syria, in Aleppo for example” , she recalls. Finally, in addition to apartment buildings, there are “interesting targets”, such as power plants. “They are trying to cut off the electricity to the Ukrainians”, but even that will not allow them “to gain the upper hand in the field”.
Does Ukraine have the means to counter these air attacks?
“Like all armed drones or prowling ammunition, they are very effective when the adversary does not have the means to protect himself or retaliate,” explains AFP Jean-Christophe Noël, French researcher at the French Institute. International Relations (Ifri). But kyiv has many resources. “A lot of their initial success will come from the fact that it’s a new weapon in this theatre. The Ukrainians will capture them, dissect them and develop anti-drone systems. Before that, they will be effective, ”adds Vikram Mittal, professor at the American military academy at West Point, also interviewed by the news agency.
Indeed, the Shahed 136 have this ability to be complicated to spot because of their wingspan (about 2.5 meters), according to the specialized site legendary planes. This small size makes them difficult to spot. However, “they are slow and fly low, so it’s possible to shoot them down”, nuance Michel Goya. In a video posted on social networks on Monday, we can see a police patrol manage to destroy one of these drones in flight with their weapons:
What is the situation on the ground?
Ukrainian communication on their advances or their retreat is at a standstill. According Cedric Mas, military historian, observer of the conflict and president of the Action Résilience institute, the army ordered “a complete blackout on its operations”, including the victories. “Ukraine manages to maintain this operational security, a silence of communication remarkable given the number of men it hires”, underlines Isabelle Dufour. A media withdrawal which is normal following a successful counter-offensive. “They are forced to take an operational break because it is a great moment in military logistics,” she adds. But Michel Goya is confident and thinks that if the operations have slowed down, “they will certainly resume all in the north and all in the south of the country, there will be fighting again in a few days”.
For its part, the Russian army ensures that it is fortifying its new front in the Northeast. She is preparing better because she is less surprised by the Ukrainian advance and is rebuilding her stocks. But the fighting should still stretch over several weeks or even months. Especially “as we do not know how far the Ukrainian army wants to go, whether it intends to take back Crimea or not”, warns Isabelle Dufour. An increasingly realistic goal for kyiv.