Like a final bottle thrown into a violent and raging sea, Moldova and Georgia applied for membership on Thursday fast to the European Union. These two former Soviet republics fear that the conflict in Ukraine will spread to their territory and intend to benefit from the protection of the Union. Their candidacies come three days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request to allow his country to join the EU “without delay”. Except that in fact, requesting urgent accession to the European Union today is a bit like knocking on a door on which there would be fifty bolts. Explanations.
What are the different steps to enter the EU?
Before even submitting an application, it is quite standard for a country to have previously established an association agreement with Brussels with the EU. “This makes it possible to create a free trade area between the EU and the country which will begin to align its standards with those of Europe”, explains Olivier Costa, research director at CNRS Ceviprof and specialist in the European Union. . The country can then submit a candidacy request to the European Council, which sends it to the European Commission for it to examine and determine whether it can be a candidate. Yes, it is not because you are applying that you are a candidate (much like with presidential sponsorships). The candidature is recognized only after a unanimous vote of the Commission, but where abstentions are not blocking.
After this validation, the application becomes official. Then begins the sequence of negotiations. During this period, the candidate country must comply with the European standard. If the Commission considers unanimously that all the boxes have been ticked, the accession can enter the final validation phase, namely: a unanimous vote by the European Council (always accepting abstentions), a vote to majority in the European Parliament and finally ratification by all the Member States of the accession treaty. “It only takes one country at a time to put its veto and it will block”, explains Olivier Costa.
What are the conditions for entering the European Union?
The country that hopes to join the European Union must meet criteria during the validation phase of its candidacy and meet various requirements during the negotiation phase. Regarding the validation of the candidacy, “it is necessary above all to be part of the European continent”, recalls Olivier Costa taking the example of the rejected candidacy of Morocco. For the rest, the Council of the European Union sets out on its website, a list of these famous criteria. The country must be a democracy with stable institutions guaranteeing the “rule of law, human rights, respect for minorities and their protection”. Its market economy must be “viable” and capable of facing competition or markets outside the EU. Finally, the country must be capable of fulfilling the objectives of political, economic and monetary union imposed by the Union.
During the negotiation phase, the country must integrate all European law into its national law, “and here we are talking about tens of thousands of standards”, comments Olivier Costa. He must also adapt his administration, sometimes make economic reforms or at the level of justice. “The objective is to be able to manage all European standards and policies on day 1 of its entry into the Union”, continues the expert. Throughout this period, the Commission ensures that the previously validated criteria for the formalization of the application are always respected.
How long does all this take?
It all depends on who you are. “For Austria, Finland and Sweden, the recognition of the candidacy was almost immediate and the negotiations for entry into the Union were very short, takes as an example Olivier Costa. On the other hand, for the countries of Central Eastern Europe, the negotiation phase lasted ten years. The more there is an economic delay, the more complicated it is. And we are not talking about Turkey, which submitted an application in 1987, recognized in 1999 and for which negotiations have been frozen since 2018.
It is for this reason that the Ukrainian president asked for “a new special procedure”, specifying: “I am sure that it is possible”. “An accelerated procedure does not exist”, tempers Olivier Costa. The time of the negotiation period is also necessary, because it allows the candidate countries to prepare properly. “They have access to an aid fund, European experts can be dispatched and cooperation is set up”, details the researcher at the CNRS.
A possible exception for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia?
It is difficult to accurately predict the future in terms of geopolitics, especially since “European law is quite flexible and adapts to the political issues of the moment”, notes Olivier Costa. “In fact, if Charles Michel (President of the European Council), Ursula von der Leyen (President of the European Commission) and Emmanuel Macron (rotating President of the Council of the European Union) think that we must send a strong message to Vladimir Poutine by validating the candidature of Ukraine, it is possible in perhaps minimum two months. This would be done on the other hand under conditions, for the expert, because in matters of democracy, minority rights or freedom of the press, Ukraine has some work to do.
With regard to membership, on the other hand, Olivier Costa is much less optimistic and quite convinced that the Member States will not want “entry at a discount”. “In the membership criteria, some also apply to the EU: is it capable of digesting a new integration, particularly on the economic level. If the Member States are unanimous in solidarity with Ukraine and understand the fears of Moldova and Georgia, some are certainly not ready to unlock the door at the risk of seeing additional difficulties and tensions settle in the house.