In by-elections in three British constituencies, the candidates of the governing Tories face defeat. That would be a heavy blow for Prime Minister Sunak. But can Labor, as the largest opposition party, benefit from this?
The Somerton and Frome constituency is fairly typical of England. The district in the south-west of Great Britain is characterized by medium-sized businesses and agriculture. It’s a decidedly conservative corner of the country. The Tories, or the Liberal Democrats, have always won elections in recent decades.
However, since Conservative MP David Warburton was forced to resign over allegations of sexual harassment and drug use, the district is holding a by-election.
In Uxbridge and South Ruslip, near London, Boris Johnson resigned as MP after a parliamentary committee concluded that the former prime minister had misled the House of Commons.
And in North Yorkshire’s Selby and Ainsty constituency, Conservative MP Nigel Adams resigned in hopes of moving into the House of Lords. Boris Johnson did not propose him for the House of Lords after his resignation. Adams previously announced that he would no longer run for office in 2024. He was considered a supporter of Johnson.
Economy, NHS, Competence
In the Somerton and Frome constituency, many are now disappointed with the Tories: “No matter how bad it gets, it would just be nice to know that the politicians are behaving morally,” a woman told the BBC.
Morality and politics after Boris Johnson – but that is only one topic of the by-elections in the three constituencies. It is also about high inflation, economic growth, long waiting times in the NHS health service and the question of how much voters actually still trust the ruling Conservatives.
The mood in the Tories is bad
Many voters are angry, and the mood among the Tories is also pretty bad given today’s by-elections in the three boroughs. Many in the party are of the opinion that it would take a miracle for the Conservatives to defend even a single seat.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has fallen further in the polls: only 25 percent of Britons appreciate his work, 65 percent are dissatisfied, according to a survey by the opinion research institute YouGov.
change of government 2024 possible?
But things aren’t looking great for Labor leader Keir Starmer either. His poll numbers are better, but given the desolate state of the Conservatives there is still a lot of room for improvement. For him, the elections are an important indicator of whether a change of government is possible in the 2024 parliamentary elections.
Starmer spreads little positive energy in the political debate. A concept like “New Labour”, with which Tony Blair won the elections in 1997 and which signaled a new beginning, a change, is not recognizable. Starmer wants to convey stability and often sounds like Sunak, critics say.
Example reform and payment in the health service: The doctors have just announced that they are going on strike for higher wages. Starmer is asked who should pay for this, and he replies: “If we were in government, I would absolutely focus on the economy growing.”
Prime Minister Sunak would answer similarly. Just like the Conservatives, Starmer wants to implement a solid financial policy and is thus alienating parts of his party.
Little difference between Tories and Labor
And Starmer sounds confusingly similar to the Conservatives in many other areas: Brexit is not being questioned, although the latest polls show that 55 percent of Britons would vote for re-entry into the EU. Starmer avoids this debate, not wanting to be the one to tell many Britons they voted wrong in the 2016 referendum.
But after a success in the parliamentary elections, Labor would also have to deal with the problems caused by Brexit: subdued growth, excessive promises by Brexit supporters, for example on asylum policy.
The moral remains: At this point, the difference between Labor and the Tories, which are characterized by lies and scandals, is hardly recognizable for many. A new beginning, a new start, according to many voters, looks different.