On Thursday, Colonel Heiko Bohnsack presented a mutton to the Imam of the Askia Mosque in Gao on the occasion of the Islamic festival of sacrifice Eid al-Adha. The Bundeswehr is popular with the population in north-east Mali, where it has its large camp. The presence of soldiers patrolling the surrounding area provides a sense of security in a troubled, battle-torn country. But the soldiers won’t be here for long.
The military junta in the capital Bamako wants to throw the UN stabilization mission Minusma out of the country, which also includes the German contingent, which currently has around 1,000 soldiers.
In mid-June, the foreign minister of the interim government formed by the putschists, Abdoulaye Diop, asked the UN Security Council in New York for the withdrawal of the peacekeeping force with around 13,500 soldiers from the country threatened by Islamist terror. His government has been working with regular Russian military trainers for some time, but above all with mercenaries from Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner group – the same Prigozhin who instigated a mutiny against the Russian military leadership at the weekend and is now said to be in exile in Belarus.
The mandate for the UN mission set up in 2013 expires at the turn of the month
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has announced that his country intends to continue Wagner’s activities in Africa, without explaining exactly how President Vladimir Putin envisages this. The Kremlin had long denied any connection to Wagner. However, the Defense Ministry in Moscow issued a decree in mid-June ordering the integration of private mercenary companies into the regular armed forces.
For the military junta under Colonel Assimi Goïta, the lever for forcing the UN’s withdrawal is the Security Council’s mandate for the mission set up in 2013: it expires at the turn of the month.
The Security Council could theoretically extend the mission against Mali’s will; it was decided according to Chapter 7 of the UN Charter. However, Russia, which has meanwhile become the most important political and military supporter of the putschists, can prevent this at any time with a veto.
Now the troop providers are looking for a way out. France, which itself ended its anti-terrorist mission in Mali, independent of Minusma, under pressure from the government there, is in charge of the dossier in the Security Council and proposes a withdrawal by the end of the year in a draft resolution. That would be a much shorter period than previously planned by the federal government.
In May, the Bundestag last extended the mandate for the Bundeswehr’s largest remaining foreign mission by one year in order to ensure an orderly withdrawal of the Bundeswehr, which should be completed by May 2024. Germany is pushing for a longer transition period. However, it is unclear whether the Security Council can agree on the French proposal.
There is no peace to keep, says the Malian interim government
The Malian interim government has demanded the immediate withdrawal of Minusma. It was “impossible to keep the peace in a situation where there is no peace to keep,” she said. She accused the UN mission of having reversed the mandate to support the Malian authorities. At the same time, however, she also pledged to work with the United Nations on the modalities of the withdrawal.
If the Security Council has not decided on a new mandate by this Friday evening, there is still an agreement on the status of foreign troops in Mali, which the troop contributors believe cannot be terminated. This would continue to provide a legal basis for an orderly deduction. In this case, however, the question would be whether the government would continue to behave in a cooperative manner. She has already issued a decree that would ban further importation of goods for Minusma. So far, however, no disabilities have been identified, according to the Bundeswehr.
The troops would be able to cope with an accelerated withdrawal, as the spokesman for the Federal Ministry of Defense, Colonel Arne Collatz, made clear on Wednesday at the government press conference. However, this could result in higher costs.
The withdrawal has long since begun. The logisticians of the Bundeswehr have to deal with equipment and material in a volume of about 1,500 containers. A significant proportion of these, well over a third, are not returned at all, but are scrapped or offered for sale to local dealers. On offer: printers, discarded vehicles and trailers. A gas station including tanks recently went under the hammer at an auction.
Security-relevant material has been flown out for weeks. The bottleneck here is transport capacity out of Mali. From the German location in Gao, the material has to be transported by Bundeswehr transport aircraft of the type Airbus A400M are taken out of the country and reloaded in Niger’s capital Niamey onto larger charter planes that cannot land in Gao. The Bundeswehr maintains an air hub in Niger.
If the Minusma mandate ends earlier than expected, the Bundeswehr will no longer have to fulfill certain orders. By September, for example, she had promised the Minusma leadership, reconnaissance drones, for example, of the type Heron to hold up. However, she has not been allowed to use the drones for months because those in power in Mali no longer allow it. They could now be transported away much earlier.
Because all Minusma partners may have to withdraw from Mali more quickly, there is a great need for coordination among the troop providers. With its helicopters, Germany ensures that the rescue chain works if someone is injured in action. The helicopters, at least, should therefore stay until the end – whenever that will be.