The Inspector General asks everyone to stand. “Ladies and gentlemen, I announce the Federal Chancellor,” calls Carsten Breuer into the dimly lit ballroom of the Marriott Hotel in Berlin and salutes. Olaf Scholz nods briefly and runs straight to the lectern with the speech folder under his arm. There he complains that he is somewhat in the twilight here. Recently, however, the financial prospects for the further course of the turning point he announced on February 27, 2022 were also somewhat unclear. And he will make a big promise here later.
Shortly before the Chancellor, the Defense Minister made a kind of morning roll call at the 2023 Bundeswehr Conference at 8:15 a.m. and gave the generals and high-ranking officials three messages. “We have to draw the right conclusions from the turning point,” says Boris Pistorius (SPD) and adds: “We can only create a strong Bundeswehr if it has the support of the state and society.” But a lot has already been achieved, “we are in a better position today than we were a year ago.”
But one thing is clear: from personnel recruitment to encrusted, bloated structures to slow weapons and ammunition production, the construction sites remain large. At the meeting, Pistorius announced that three sub-departments in the ministry would be dissolved and more than 200 positions would be relocated to strengthen the Bundeswehr. More than 1,000 positions – more than a third of the house – are to be restructured internally in the biggest reform since 2012. For him, Pistorius says, strengthening the Bundeswehr, materially, structurally and in terms of personnel, is about: “Being able to wage war so as not to have to wage war, that’s war capability.” He also received some criticism from the SPD for the term.
“We have to prepare more and more for hybrid situations”
There are many concerns in the room. A general in the Air Force reports that there was criticism that Germany received the missile defense system from Israel Arrow3 buys, costs: almost four billion euros. It can destroy long- and medium-range missiles at an altitude of over 100 kilometers – now Israel has intercepted a missile fired in Yemen for the first time. “2000 kilometers, that’s also the distance from Moscow to Berlin,” says the general. Breuer, in turn, is very concerned about this: “We have to prepare more and more for hybrid situations.” Not real war, but something in between. The Chancellor also emphasizes: “We have to improve the situation reports” – also with regard to critical infrastructure and cyber attacks: “So that we are not surprised.” The German services had suboptimal information about Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
Scholz emphasizes that he wants to say thank you here – learning the lessons from Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine would not be possible “without your tireless efforts, without the commitment of your comrades.” Now there is also the cruel terror of Hamas and its supporters against Israel.
“Germany’s place is on Israel’s side,” emphasizes Scholz. Ukraine is the second largest supporter after the USA. “As bitter as it is: we do not live in times of peace. Our peace order is in danger.” He doesn’t use the word “war-ready” like Pistorius does, but emphasizes: “We need armed forces that are capable of protecting our country. Armed forces that are ready with skills, personnel and material to defend the security of the alliance’s territory.” He himself likes to be seen on tanks or in… Eurofighter take photos, visit Bundeswehr locations and make it clear that the reserve needs to be strengthened just in case the worst comes to the worst.
“We will guarantee the two percent permanently,” says Scholz
He points to the importance of the new homeland security regiments in which reserve service personnel are deployed. Six regiments have so far been created as part of the Territorial Reserve with almost 4,000 positions. And Scholz emphasizes that “for the first time in over three decades” the NATO goal of spending two percent of gross domestic product on defense will be achieved in 2024, thanks to the special fund of 100 billion euros.
But will this be achieved in the long term? After his speech, Jana Puglierin from the European Council on Foreign Relations asks him to come on stage. She wants to know more, and so does the audience. Because if the special fund is used up by 2028 at the latest, the regular defense budget will have to grow from around 52 billion euros today to up to 80 billion euros. Where should the additional at least 25 billion euros come from in the long term? Scholz is now making a promise that is intended to bind future federal governments even after he is no longer chancellor. “We will guarantee the two percent permanently,” says Scholz. This applies to the 1920s and the 1930s.
The elephant in the room: the personnel issue in the troops
He doesn’t say how he plans to do this while adhering to the debt brake. Scholz emphasizes that you have to enter into very long-term supply relationships, just so that there is always enough supplies, including ammunition. You can see how difficult it is to put everything back together again now. Pistorius has said that the issue of “war capability” also requires a rethink in society. Scholz sees no fault in the change in mentality; the appreciation for the troops has increased significantly.
The elephant in the room remains the issue of personnel. Scholz says that service in uniform must become even more central to society. He says nothing about models being discussed in the Bundeswehr, such as compulsory years of service or partial conscription in order to increase the personnel reserve. The Bundeswehr has more than 260,000 employees – 180,907 in uniform, 81,501 civilians – but the proportion of women among soldiers is only 13 percent, and there is a lack of soldiers with a migrant background. And it is completely unclear whether the planned increase to 203,000 soldiers will work and be enough. At the end of the conference, Pistorius promised that the issue of personnel was his “top priority.”