The Chancellor wants to put the last year full of traffic light disputes behind him and improve the battered image of his governing coalition. How? The general debate in the Bundestag could provide information.
Bad poll numbers, constant arguments at traffic lights, criticism of his leadership style and communication: Olaf Scholz let all of this roll off his back for a long time.
“Trust me,” was his motto. The Chancellor will sort it out. Since the Federal Constitutional Court’s budget ruling, Scholz can no longer get away with it so easily. Last week, he indicated in Die Zeit that he understood this – Scholz practiced something like self-criticism for the first time, albeit very cautiously.
But what follows from this? Is the country now experiencing a “new Scholz” who knows that he has to fight his way back into the favor of the voters? Today’s general debate on the budget could shed light on this. It will be the Chancellor’s first speech duel with CDU leader Friedrich Merz this year. Traditionally, these debates are opened by the leader of the opposition. Only then will it be the Chancellor’s turn. It suits Scholz to be able to react to Merz. In this constellation he had his best appearances in parliament to date.
Scholz sees himself as a “citizen politician”
Around 700 people were able to experience the “new” – or perhaps not so new – Scholz the evening before in Potsdam: a conversation between the Chancellor in his Brandenburg constituency and the writer Juli Zeh, where people from the audience were also able to ask questions.
Scholz appeared thoughtful at times. He confessed how “terrible” he found the strength of the AfD and the reports about the meeting of radical right-wingers with some AfD politicians in Potsdam. In response to a question from a young woman, Scholz emphasized seriously and solemnly that he would never allow people with a migrant background to be forced out of the country.
The conversation with Zeh repeatedly focused on how dissatisfied citizens could be reached, how AfD sympathizers should not be labeled or treated condescendingly, and how important exchanges with voters are. He has great conversations and often invites people to citizen dialogues, emphasized Scholz. In general: he is a “citizen politician”.
“It’s true what has been done”
And then Scholz took the opportunity to express himself quite satisfied with the results of his two-year reign. Unemployment pension, minimum wage, housing benefit, child benefit, child allowance – the needs of people with low incomes were always taken into account. In order to cope with the consequences of Corona and the war in Ukraine and to keep the economy going, the state also took on an additional 500 to 600 billion euros in debt. “What has been done to stabilize living conditions is correct,” said Scholz.
Bringing calm, praising himself a little, that was more of his usual role. It’s about “that we can develop something like confidence that things will turn out well for all of us in the next 10, 20, 30 years,” said Scholz right at the beginning of the evening. And then later he added that he tries not to join in with those who say everything will go wrong. “At the same time, I’m making sure it doesn’t sound like drugged-out optimism, where you think, ‘What is this guy talking about?'”
Scholz was also recently optimistic that the traffic lights will work much better in the new year than last. When asked where he got his confidence from, he told “Zeit”: “We have not completely, but to a large extent, negotiated the central controversial issues that arise from the different political-ideological perspectives described.”
Plenty of controversial topics
But there are still plenty of controversial topics – from citizens’ money, to basic child welfare, to Taurus cruise missiles. And the next budget negotiations will be tough again. In addition, the elections in June (European and local elections) and September (state elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg) could bring the traffic light coalition into greater turbulence. Ultimately, there is now a long-term election campaign until the federal election in autumn 2025.
Scholz has decided to get involved. In the European election campaign, he will be the second face of the SPD alongside top candidate Katarina Barley. That also carries a risk. The election result will also be his result. If the historically worst result of a nationwide vote of 15.8 percent in the last European election is significantly undercut, Scholz also has a problem.
Speech duel between Scholz and Merz
But now it’s time for the general debate. The speech duel between Scholz and Merz is the first between the two opponents since the Chancellor’s government statement on the historic ruling by the Constitutional Court. “You can’t do it,” Merz accused Scholz at the time and described him as the “plumber of power”. It is not to be expected that the opposition leader’s submission for Scholz’s speech will be more gentle this time.