One scenario: at 6 p.m. sharp, the black bar moves upwards – but it stops, much too early, as can be seen in the faces of the assembled CSU celebrities. The first extrapolation for the Union in the Federation on this Bundestag election evening is just 20.5 percent. It is a turning point, a deep turning point for Germany’s last major people’s party – and fates depend on this election result. Long-standing MPs who did not have to worry a short time ago have suddenly lost their mandate.
But will it really be like this next Sunday? The current polls are only snapshots and they are volatile like never before. A look ahead to the election evening in the Munich district makes it clear that a lot is possible. To be more precise: three scenarios. A more likely one, a surprising one – and one that many would never have imagined in their wildest dreams.
The impossible
Some bombs hit hard but cannot really be heard. A few days ago the image a poll that reflects all the madness of this campaign. “Who would have thought that?” Wrote the SPD district chairman Florian Schardt, visibly surprised, on his Facebook page. And further: “Rüger only 3% away from the direct mandate.” The polling institute Insa asked voters in the Munich district who they want to give their first vote in the election – and the result is, to put it mildly, a sensation: 24 percent would choose the top dog Florian Hahn from the CSU, 23 percent for Anton Hofreiter, the leader of the Greens in the Bundestag, and 21 percent for Korbinian Rüger.
Korbinian who? A few weeks ago a not entirely unjustified question.
After the hasty withdrawal of the Bundestag member Bela Bach, Rüger is actually a candidate for embarrassment who has exactly one chance of coming to Berlin: He has to win the direct mandate, because he is not represented on the SPD state list. Its supposed strength is also the weakness of the competition – not so much the candidates, but the parties. The current crash of the Union and the stagnation of the Greens in the polls. Hofreiter and Hahn will approach each other in the first votes, Rüger will catch up. If the Insa trend continues, a few hundred votes could decide who will represent Munich-Land in Berlin in the future.
But one thing is already certain: if Rüger or Hofreiter wins the direct mandate, Hahn’s career as a member of the Bundestag is over. Because due to the high number of direct mandates in Bavaria, no Christian Socialist will move into the Bundestag via the CSU state list.
The surprise
If the black bar actually stays at just over 20 percent, it will be tricky for Florian Hahn anyway – and cheers should break out in the party headquarters of the Greens on the square in front of the New Gate in Berlin. Anton Hofreiter will be there on election evening – and yet he will keep an eye on the results from his home district with an eagle eye. In his place of residence Unterhaching, it was already clear in the local elections in spring 2020 what potential the Greens have, who with more than 28 percent have been the strongest force in the local council since then.
Hofreiter is up to Hahn, how close is difficult to say in view of the uncertainties before the election. The Election.de portal is currently giving Hofreiter a ten percent chance of getting the direct mandate. During the first hype about Annalena Baerbock’s candidacy for chancellor, Hofreiter was even awarded the mandate, but then the candidate stumbled through the election campaign and Hofreiter’s chances dwindled.
Nevertheless, there is a chance that he will go straight to Berlin. For this he will have to screw his first vote result to more than 20 percent, which is quite likely. Then it all depends on how high Hahn’s losses are. He will also look at the results from the district in the party headquarters – and possibly tremble.
The expected
You can’t blame Florian Hahn for not fighting. The CSU candidate is present in the election campaign like no other, posters himself up, shows himself at events. So far, voters have always appreciated this. And Hahn has two advantages: In his previous three candidacies, Putzbrunner’s personal first vote result was always above the party’s second vote result – always well with around six or seven percent. In 2017, the CSU in the district fell from 46.9 percent to only 37.3 percent in the second vote; Hahn still got 43.5 percent of the first votes, albeit after 52.5 percent in 2017. The results reflect the trend and the level in the Free State. Hahn’s second advantage lies in the heterogeneous structure of the district, which is becoming more and more urban, but still largely rural in character. This is exactly where it should succeed, while the Greens and the SPD are taking votes away from each other in the larger towns.