Bundestag election: How the desire for change shaped the election

Why was it so disastrous for the Union? Could your “Red Socks” campaign save anything? The SPD should have ruled out an alliance with the Left Party. Surveys provide interesting information here. An analysis based on the data from infratest dimap.

Germany is politically divided – that should be one of the central findings of this election evening. This is not only indicated by the close race that the Union and the SPD are delivering according to projections. Even the polls that infratest dimap carried out on election day and the days before that demonstrate the split. Above all, it shows in two things: in people’s willingness to change and in the issues that are seen as important.

Desire for change much stronger than in 2017

Hardly anyone eligible to vote in Germany wanted to “keep it up”. But when it comes to the question of how far-reaching the change should be, there are clearly two camps: 51 percent think that a few course corrections would be enough. At least 40 percent say they want a fundamental change.

Two things are striking: On the one hand, the number of those who would like a fundamental change has doubled compared to the 2017 federal election. On the other hand, they are mainly to be found among the supporters of three parties: Left, AfD and Greens – although their supporters probably understand very different things by change.

Three camps – three dominant themes

Even if you look at the topics that are decisive for your choice, you can clearly see camps. A There was no dominant topic in this election, but three that were equally important: social security, environment / climate and economy / work. For voters of the Greens – unsurprisingly – the environment was particularly important, for voters from the Union and FDP economics and work and for voters from the SPD and left the social security.

This is one of the explanations for why the Union has lost so massively compared to the 2017 election and has the worst result in its history. Because apparently she has lost many voters to whom the issues of social security and climate are quite important – and who now feel better off with the SPD or the Greens. You can see that if you ask those who voted for Union in 2017, but not this time. For them, the order of the most important issues is different: social security comes first.

SPD on important tasks in front of the Union

But the main problems of the Union are different: In all political areas, voters perceive it to have lost massive trust in its ability to solve the respective problems – including its “core issues”. If you ask the voters which party is particularly competent in fields such as economics or the fight against crime, the Union is still ahead with 32 and 35 percent respectively.

The decisive point, however, is that it has lost massively here – as in all areas – compared to 2017: In the economic area, the decline is as much as 25 percentage points. And the Union is no longer the party that is most likely to be trusted to solve the currently important tasks and Germany – here it has fallen behind the SPD.

The tussle over the candidacy is causing massive damage to the Union

It is also clear that the wrangling over the candidate for chancellor has done massive damage to the Union. Long before the election, it became clear that her candidate for Chancellor Armin Laschet would not convince voters. This is also confirmed by the polls around election day. Only 27 percent of eligible voters in Germany believe that Laschet would be up to the office of Chancellor. And of those who voted for Union in 2017, but not this time anymore, 86 percent said that they would have preferred another candidate for chancellor.

This other candidate would probably have been CSU boss Markus Söder. But even his behavior after his defeat for the candidacy is rated very negatively. 45 percent of those eligible to vote in Germany say that has harmed the Union. 41 percent of the CDU voters also see it that way – but only ten percent of the CSU voters.

Majority wants SPD-led government

The fact that the Union was able to catch up a little in the last few days before the election and move closer to the SPD could be due to its “Red Socks” campaign. At every opportunity presented, Union leaders had warned of a possible alliance between the SPD, the Greens and the Left Party. That apparently resonated with many of the regular voters – who are rather older and less willing to change. 71 percent of Union voters say that they put their cross on the CDU or CSU mainly to prevent a left-wing alliance.

The SPD has gained massively and is one of the big election winners. It is not yet clear whether she will lead the future government. In the interests of most Germans, that would be: 38 percent of those eligible to vote say in the polls that the SPD should lead the future government – regardless of whether they actually elected it. Only 28 percent want a Union-led government. In both cases it is mostly the older ones. Younger people, on the other hand, would like a government led by the Greens. But they are in the minority in Germany.

SPD voters also quarrel with the left alliance

Incidentally, many SPD voters are also struggling with a possible alliance involving the Left Party. After all, 40 percent would have liked the party leadership to have clearly ruled this out before the election.

The party’s draft horse – this had already become clear in the weeks leading up to the election – was its candidate for chancellor. 37 percent say Olaf Scholz was the most important reason for voting for the party. 43 percent say the party’s program was decisive for them, the long-term party affiliation, which used to be important for the SPD, only plays a subordinate role.

When looking at the competencies, the SPD has increased in almost all areas. It no longer struggles so hard with the problem that even its constituents do not know what it actually stands for. And it is again perceived more strongly as “social democratic”.

AfD reaches its core clientele, but no one else

The AfD has lost votes compared to the 2017 election and ends up roughly where surveys have seen it for months: in the almost double-digit range. This suggests that she is reaching her core clientele, but no one beyond.

This is also supported by the fact that it can score points with completely different topics than other parties. By far the most important topic for AfD voters remains immigration in this election, but for voters of other parties it currently plays practically no role. And a look at the attribution of competencies confirms this thesis: The AfD has clearly gained in several areas – at a low level. It has double-digit values ​​in two areas: in the fight against crime, where 13 percent of those eligible to vote say the AfD can do that best, and in immigration, where it is 14 percent – values ​​that roughly correspond to their election results.

Personnel problems at the Left Party

At the other end of the party spectrum, Die Linke is moving in the area of ​​the five percent hurdle. Although one of its “core issues” – social security – is considered to be very important by many voters, it is clearly losing out compared to the 2017 election. This has to do with the strengthening of the SPD on the one hand, but also with home-made problems on the other. 70 percent of those eligible to vote say the Left Party lacks convincing leaders – and even of the Left voters, almost one in two says that.

The Greens and FDP have the youngest voters

It is also interesting to take a look at the question of the age groups in which the parties are strong: the Union and SPD can score points above all with older people, while two other parties above all with younger people: the Greens and the FDP.

The FDP has gained and of course benefits from the weakness of the Union. But it scores – also outside of its own camp – with its insistence on freedom and de-bureaucratisation. Nevertheless, it is still strongly perceived as a clientele party. 61 percent say they are too committed to high earners. The fact that it does not want to tax these high earners more heavily is only partly well received by its own voters.

Only ten percent choose green because of Baerbock

And the greens? You are – measured by the gains – one of the big election winners. But the joy about it should be limited, at times in surveys it even looked as if they could appoint the Chancellor.

The polls around election day confirm once again that her candidate was not convincing. Only 20 percent of those eligible to vote believe that Annalena Baerbock would be up to the office – even less than with Union candidate Laschet. And only ten percent of the Greens voters made their cross because of the candidate in the party.

Greens with the best answers to questions about the future

In terms of content, however, the Greens are well positioned. You are the party where voters know best what it stands for. It is perceived as particularly credible and when it comes to the question of competencies, it was able to improve in almost all areas. It only fell slightly on its core topic of environment and climate – but this is due to the fact that other parties have also discovered this topic and does not change the fact that the Greens are given by far the greatest competence here.

With a view to their future electoral chances, the Greens are likely to be happy about two findings of this evening: They have the youngest voters and they are considered the party that has the best answers to questions about the future.