It’s the end of the holidays for the political parties, which are gathering to prepare their next battles, parliamentary and electoral.
After a three-week summer break, political life resumes its course. The first Council of Ministers was held on Wednesday August 23, a month after the reshuffle. Confirmed at Matignon, Elisabeth Borne met all week with the leaders of the parties that make up her majority to prepare for the next projects. In the oppositions too, autumn is getting organized. The parties are making their comeback, with summer universities which will be in full swing on the weekend of August 26 and 27. On the program, discussions on the priorities for the next parliamentary session and arbitrations concerning the upcoming elections, one month before the senatorial elections and ten months before the European elections.
Renaissance and its allies
The Head of State said little during his vacation at Fort Brégançon. Upon his return, he scheduled a meeting “of the forces represented in the Senate and the Assembly” as part of a “major political initiative”and announced possible referendums on several subjects in an interview with Point. The objective is to find common ground with the oppositions in order to avoid another chaotic parliamentary year because of the relative majority in the Assembly.
The 2024 budget, presented at the end of September, occupies the minds of the macronists. “This is a key moment to defend the purchasing power of the French”, assures the deputy Anne Genetet. Emmanuel Macron has indeed promised in may tax cuts for households. The vice-president of the Renaissance group in the Assembly also evokes ongoing reflections after the revolt movement which followed the death of Nahel in Nanterre (Hauts-de-Seine) on June 27, in particular on the“authority” and the “support for families facing educational difficulties”.
Then will come immigration reform. Walkers defend “more than ever” the complementarity of its two components, the sovereign and the social, assures the deputy Sacha Houlié, in the face of pressure from the Republicans. In the absence of an absolute majority, the Head of State does not rule out resorting to 49.3 again. The parliamentarians of the presidential party will prepare for it during their back-to-school seminar on 13 and 14 September. The Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, preceded them, by giving an appointment to his supporters on August 27 in Tourcoing (North).
If the macronists have few ambitions in the senatorial elections, they are refining their strategy for the European election in June 2024. Europe will also be the flagship subject of the Renaissance campus, from September 6 to 8 in Bordeaux. Their allies will make their comeback in mid-September in Angers for Horizons, around Edouard Philippe, and at the end of the month in Guidel (Morbihan) for François Bayrou’s Modem.
The Republicans
After having exposed their divisions during the debate on pensions, the Republicans gather around Eric Ciotti in Levens (Alpes-Maritimes) on Sunday for a “country lunch”. The party’s staff will be present for this event centered on the “rebuilding of [leur] political family”. LR hopes to find some semblance of unity when considering the immigration law. “If the government maintains the regularization of foreigners in professional sectors in tension, and draws a 49.3 for this, there will be a motion of censure. This is our line”warns Pierre-Henri Dumont, MP for Pas-de-Calais.
The right will also seize the debate on the budget, presenting in the fall a “counter-proposal” to reduce social spending “unproductive” and increase resources “for the authority of the state”detailed on France 2 Eric Ciotti in July.
Apart from these subjects, the party wants to remain in an attitude of measured opposition. “We are ready to vote what goes in the right direction, what corresponds to our program, but we do not want to serve as a comfort majority”continues Pierre-Henri Dumont, adding that these questions will be addressed during the parliamentary return of the right, in Saint-Malo, at the beginning of September. Prompt to react to current events and miscellaneous facts, the party leadership also announced on Tuesday “a major national plan to fight against drug trafficking”after the death of a 10-year-old child in Nîmes, Monday, August 21, in a shooting against a backdrop of drug trafficking.
As for the senatorial elections, the right approaches them calmly, almost certain to keep the majority in the upper house. She is aware, however, that the European elections will be delicate, after her disappointing score in 2019.
The National Rally
After a muted summer, Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella and their troops will return to Beaucaire (Gard) on September 16. Emphasis will be placed on safety, “priority work” according to the deputy of Yonne Julien Odoul. The president of the group in the Assembly and the leader of the party there “will give a perspective for the year to come and will remind us of our fight against anarchic immigration and for the purchasing power of the French”develops Julien Odoul.
The RN hopes to enter the Senate at the end of September. He is also preparing for the European elections and again hopes to get ahead of the majority list. “A first test” before the 2027 presidential election.
During their parliamentary days, MPs must also select the bills they will present during their parliamentary niche on 12 October. At the Assembly, the strategy remains the same: gain credit by embodying an opposition “constructive”we say to the party, using all the legislative tools available, including the motion of censure.
The Nupes
On the left, the four Nupes parties return to school the same weekend, but separately: the Greens organize their summer university in Le Havre (Seine-Maritime), while the rebellious gather in Chateauneuf-sur-Isère ( Drôme), the socialists in Blois (Loir-et-Cher) and the communists in Strasbourg (Bas-Rhin). The future of the coalition will be at the heart of discussions, after months of tension over strategy, the upcoming elections and countless battles on social networks. After the pension reform, will that on immigration be the new unifying fight for Nupes? The deputies of the intergroup will meet in a seminar on September 18 in Ivry-sur-Seine (Val-de-Marne), to define a common work program.
• Insubordinate France. It’s time for the fight against the 2024 budget, the immigration reform, “unfair and ineffective”according to the deputy for Seine-Saint-Denis Eric Coquerel, and the full employment bill, “reactionary”. But the key event for this back-to-school season is the demonstration “against police violenceon September 23, nearly three months after Nahel’s death. “I hope that we will be able to unify the Nupes on this subject, that was not quite the case at the end of June”advances the parliamentarian.
Another subject threatens to fracture the Nupes: the European elections, for which the Greens and the Communists each want to present their list. The rebellious maintain the pressure for a single list. “We will continue to plead in this direction, until the end, because faced with the danger of the far right, nothing must be done to call into question the union of Nupes in the next elections”launches Eric Coquerel.
• Europe Ecology-The Greens. If the invitation of Medina to summer universities did not cause a stir among the rebellious, it divided the Greens and parasitized their return. The party now hopes to turn the page and be able to focus on the fight against climate change. “We have to fight against every fraction of a degree, but also work on adapting our society, especially after a summer like this”summarizes Julien Bayou, MP for Paris, who announces several amendments in this direction during the examination of the budget, to promote the train or paint the roofs of buildings in white.
The good results of the ecologists in the last municipal elections give hope for some gains in the senatorial elections. In October, they will launch another campaign, that of the Europeans. EELV chose to leave alone, with MEP Marie Toussaint at the top of the list, to the chagrin of the rebellious.
• The Socialist Party. The socialists’ summer university has made less noise. Dedicated to the working classes, it notably welcomes two former presidential candidates, Ségolène Royal and Benoît Hamon. A small controversy, however, agitates the PS: the president of the Occitanie region, Carole Delga, has chosen to boycott the event, against a backdrop of tensions between the pro-Nupes line of the first secretary, Olivier Faure, and that anti-Nupes of some socialists, of which she is a member.
In addition to the budget and the law on immigration, the Socialists intend to target the bill on full employment, which plans in particular to reform the RSA and Pôle emploi. “It’s a big battle, because this text is the symbol of the government’s regressions: after the reduction of unemployment and retirement rights, Emmanuel Macron will reduce the rights of those who have nothing, or only the social minima “, denounces Arthur Delaporte, deputy of Calvados. The PS will also try to attract new activists by organizing conventions in the fall dedicated to feminism, Europe and the working classes.
• The Communist Party. Like the Greens, the Communists have chosen to go it alone in the Europeans, with a list led by Léon Deffontaines. By choosing Strasbourg, stronghold of the European Parliament, they place their return to school under the aegis of this future electoral battle. Will they continue to distance themselves from Nupes, which their national secretary, Fabien Roussel, judged “outdated” last April?