The British Parliament is due to vote on a new asylum law today. But there are disagreements among Prime Minister Sunak’s Tories. If the plan fails, he could lose his office.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is fighting for his political future. Yesterday he had to answer questions from the Covid investigation committee and, among other things, justify himself for “Eat out to help out”. With this program, the conservative government subsidized restaurant visits in the summer of 2020 to support the catering industry during the pandemic.
Sunak – Finance Minister under Prime Minister Boris Johnson in 2020 – was convinced of the program and still is, even if the number of infections rose significantly again after “Eat out to help out”.
Sunak is threatened with a serious blow
While Sunak had to answer questions in committee for hours, crucial preparations for today were underway in Westminster: the various wings and splinter groups of the Conservative Party determined how they wanted to position themselves on Rwanda emergency legislation.
The draft will be voted on in the lower house in the evening in its second reading. If he doesn’t get enough votes, it would be a huge blow to Sunak – and the beginning of the next government crisis. Many observers will then feel once again confirmed in their opinion that the Conservative Party has become ungovernable.
Right wing wants tougher measures
The prime minister is faced with an almost insoluble problem: the bill goes too far for the more moderate conservatives, but not far enough for the right wing of the party. With the Rwanda Emergency Act, 10 Downing Street is responding to the Supreme Court ruling that overturned the government’s deportation plans to Rwanda. From the judges’ point of view, Rwanda is not a safe third country.
Now the MPs should declare Rwanda a safe third country by law to which Great Britain can deport illegally immigrated asylum seekers – regardless of their origin and reasons for fleeing. Human rights should sometimes not apply so that those affected cannot sue in British courts.
However, the right wing of the Conservative Party believes this approach is not strict enough. He has had the draft legally examined and still sees loopholes. In addition, numerous right-wing conservatives are calling for the withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights so that asylum seekers cannot sue against their deportation before the European Court of Human Rights.
Internal party fragmentation becomes clear
It is remarkable how much trouble the Prime Minister has gotten himself into. Although Britain has problems that affect the population more than illegal immigration, Sunak is making this issue a priority.
While many Brits are struggling with high living costs and rising interest rates, and waiting lists for the NHS are getting longer and longer, the head of government is focusing on an issue that is difficult to score points with and that is causing old turf wars to flare up again in his party. The internal party fragmentation, which is still familiar from the Brexit era, is clearly evident again.
If 29 conservative MPs vote against the Rwanda emergency law in the lower house today, it will fail. Even if there are too many abstentions, the legislative process is over. Sunak would lose a lot of authority as a result, possibly too much. It could mean his removal and early elections.