analysis
Eleven members instead of five – the BRICS alliance of states is to become BRICS-Plus. This announcement at the summit in South Africa was linked to a high claim: it was a contribution to a just world. does that fit?
It was surprising what South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa announced in the morning: Six new countries will join the BRICS alliance of states. They are Argentina, Ethiopia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.
The accession should take effect from January 1, 2024, and the alliance should then be called BRICS Plus. “With this summit, BRICS has opened a new chapter, said Ramaphosa. “A new chapter to create a fair world. A just world. A world that is inclusive and prosperous.”
Ethiopia or another country?
The press conference originally scheduled for Wednesday had been cancelled. It was not officially stated why. It is said, however, that there was a discussion about why Ethiopia, a second country, should be accepted from the African continent. Allegedly, Indonesia was also in the running.
But then Ramaphosa prevailed. It couldn’t be, he is said to have argued, that the enlargement would be decided at a summit in South Africa and then not a single black African country would be there. Although Egypt is geographically in Africa, it is considered an Arab country. So then: Ethiopia. However, this dispute has not been officially confirmed.
New world order?
Many observers believe that the BRICS Plus alliance of states will shift the political and economic weight around the world. The old BRICS group represented 42 percent of the world’s population and around 25 percent of global economic output. BRICS Plus, the future group, will represent 37 percent of the world’s economic output and 46 percent of the world’s population.
A powerful bloc, say many analysts, to stand up to the West, which the BRICS countries perceive as too powerful and too dominant. So a new world order? Steven Gruzd from the South African Institute of International Affairs says that it remains to be seen whether BRICS Plus can be a powerful adversary or just a competitor. The interests of the soon to be eleven BRICS Plus members are too different, as are their economic and political structures and goals.
China and Russia are clearly autocracies, as is Iran. Brazil, India and South Africa are parliamentary democracies, as is Argentina, but where should the other five newcomers be placed? Until recently, war was still raging in Ethiopia, but people in Egypt are being trampled on even more.
The thing with Saudi Arabia and Iran
The fact that Saudi Arabia and Iran will be two countries in the new BRICS Plus that are actually dead enemies seems particularly precarious. Both countries claim supremacy in the Middle East. Iran supports the rebels in Yemen, which Saudi Arabia has been fighting militarily for a long time.
Although China made a semi-successful attempt at mediation at the beginning of the year, Gruzd says: “It will be interesting to see whether that really works. These two countries will be bitter rivals in the Middle East for a long time to come. I don’t think that an agreement like the one that was announced today that will suddenly make the bad blood between these two countries disappear.”
Political or economic?
On the first and second day there was a lot of talk about the war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin had heavily criticized the West in two video messages. On Tuesday he bemoaned the Western sanctions against what he called “sovereign countries”, which, however, would primarily affect the world’s poorest countries. By “sovereign states” he meant, of course, Russia, by the “poorest countries” African states.
On Wednesday he did it again. It was the West that “unleashed” the war against Ukraine. On the final day, however, not a word about it. Putin, again in a video message, thanked the BRICS countries for the enlargement and praised the South African president’s conduct of the negotiations.
Only Chinese President Xi Jinping briefly mentioned that the new BRICS Plus group should also be in favor of securing world peace. Nobody talked about how things should go with a country like Iran.
In general, there was a lot of talk today about economic cooperation and more cooperation between the banks in the member countries. On the last day of the summit, nobody spoke about a common currency, which had been discussed again and again in the past few days. This project will probably be off the table for now.
winner – loser?
For long stretches, the Chinese president appeared to be dominating the summit. On Tuesday he combined the summit with a state visit to South Africa, unlike the presidents of India and Brazil. There was another Sino-African meeting on the last day of the summit. While Xi failed to get another Asian country into the confederation, overall he appeared to be satisfied with the outcome of the summit.
Host Ramaphosa also did well. He seemed to lead confidently through the days. Ramaphosa also wanted to score points domestically – next year there will be an election in South Africa – and he appears to have succeeded. Brazil and India’s representatives sometimes acted like onlookers, although at least Brazil’s President Lula da Silva made good appearances.
And Russia? Seemed overwhelmed by the war against Ukraine. After all, Moscow, along with China, was one of the two driving forces behind the enlargement. That’s also a success.