The smoke over Brasília had not yet cleared when Jair Bolsonaro ignited again. On Facebook the right-wing ex-president of Brazil shared a video in the middle of the week, which, once again, whispers of alleged presidential election manipulation, although there is no evidence to support it. The leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, to whom Bolsonaro lost in the fall, was “not elected by the people,” claims a spokesman, claiming he was simply put into office by the judiciary. A few hours later, Bolsonaro deleted the video.
It’s the strategy the Brazilian right-wing has been employing for years: spreading accusations, breaking taboos, backtracking a bit every now and then. What this has led to could be observed last Sunday, the day that will go down in Brazilian history as the “attack on democracy”. A mob of 3,000 “Bolsonaristas”, unwilling to accept the defeat of their idol in the elections, devastated the state’s most important institutions in the capital Brasília: the Congress, the Supreme Court, the Presidential Palace. They smashed furniture and computer screens, smashed windows and sculptures, and some stole weapons from security guards’ lockers.
Almost all analysts agree that Bolsonaro is partly to blame for the devastation from a political point of view. He never showed any interest in a peaceful transition between his presidency and Lula’s; he never unequivocally admitted defeat and, contrary to tradition, refused to hand over the presidential sash to his successor at his inauguration. In recent years, Bolsonaro has also made no secret of the fact that he sees violence as a legitimate political tool. It is practical, Bolsonaro said during the election campaign, when many of his opponents are close together. “Then you kill them all with one grenade.”
Political responsibility is one thing; but the question is whether Bolsonaro could be prosecuted for the Brasília riots. Subsequent impeachment proceedings, such as those attempted – unsuccessfully – against Donald Trump after the storming of the Capitol two years ago, are not possible, according to lawyers, since Bolsonaro was no longer in office on the day of the attack.
Is it enough for an indictment? Could money flow?
However, he could still be excluded from future elections if he were previously sentenced by a court of law. Then he would not be allowed to stand for election for a period of eight years. No official investigation has yet been launched into Bolsonaro in connection with the storming of Brasília. But the authorities are primarily investigating two questions: Are Bolsonaro’s statements before and after the election sufficient to accuse him of inciting the riots? And: Did he participate in any way in organizing or financing the protests?
The legal experts are divided on the question of incitement. Some refer to his numerous inflammatory posts, which made an indictment possible. Others consider a conviction unlikely because a direct connection is difficult to prove. For example, unlike Trump two years ago, Bolsonaro did not speak directly to the demonstrators, he was not even in Brasília that day.
The investigations into whether Bolsonaro helped organize the protests in any way should be all the more exciting. His former justice minister, Anderson Torres, has emerged as a key figure on this issue. It is suspected that in his new post as Brasília’s head of security, he made sure that the institutions were hardly protected by police officers. An arrest warrant was issued for Torres – and A document was found during a search at his homefueling speculation about a political conspiracy.
Some see evidence that there were coup plots against Lula
It is a draft decree that Bolsonaro could have used to disempower the electoral court while still president and subsequently change the election result. Torres said the decree was not his and was taken out of context. Observers take it as a strong indication that there were coup plans against Lula in the Bolsonaro government.
The question remains whether voters will turn their backs on Bolsonaro after the riots. The political scientist and Brazil expert Mariana Llanos considers this unlikely. “Bolsonaro is not dead politically,” she says. “Many of his voters don’t believe the serious media, they only follow fake news.” Abstruse myths have been spreading on the relevant channels for days: It is said that there were no Bolsonaro supporters behind the storming of Brasília. But disguised left-wing radicals sent by President Lula.