Bosnia and Herzegovina summit: winner of the “EU enlargement whirlwind”?

Bosnia and Herzegovina could get the green light for EU accession negotiations – for Brussels’ “geopolitical reasons”, says an expert. The government has hardly implemented any reform requirements and is flirting with proximity to Russia.

In order for Bosnia and Herzegovina to enter into accession negotiations with the EU, a unanimous decision is required. The 27 member states are still divided on the issue – but with the support of the EU Commission, some have significantly lowered their expectations of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

In 2019 there was still talk of 14 “key priorities” that the country had to fulfill in order to make progress on the European path. Now only the three reforms that were recently implemented could be enough. These were laws that, among other things, were intended to prevent corruption and money laundering and that politicians primarily enforce their personal interests.

“Bosnia and Herzegovina hasn’t moved much in substance, and the Bosnian politicians don’t deserve the EU accession negotiations,” says Vedran Dzihic, Southeastern Europe researcher with Bosnian roots at the Austrian Institute for International Politics in Vienna.

Dzihic is of the opinion that those in favor of accession are only acting out of “geopolitical reasons” because the EU is afraid of losing influence in the Western Balkans to Russia or China. “The attitude towards Bosnia recently has been along the lines of: Please just give us something. At least show us that you are moving a little so that we can take you with us in our enlargement whirlwind,” says Dzihic.

Good relationship between Čović and Dodik

He sees two central problems in Bosnia and Herzegovina that stand in the way of European integration: on the one hand, ethno-nationalist politicians who work primarily for their clientele and for themselves and also influence the judiciary. On the other hand, there is the tussle of competence between the entire state of Bosnia and Herzegovina and its entities, the Bosniak-Croat-dominated Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska.

The two most powerful politicians who are repeatedly accused of corruption, ethno-nationalism and dividing the country are Dragan Čović, the head of the Bosnian Croat HDZ party, and Milorad Dodik, the head of the Bosnian Serb SNSD party and president of the Republika Srpska. They have a good relationship with each other and were in Vienna together in mid-March – at a panel discussion at the Bosnian embassy on the subject of European integration.

Čović took the opportunity to complain that there was no clear separation based on ethnicity in the elections: the Croat representative in the three-member state presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina was elected predominantly by Bosniaks.

A Kremlin-loving gamer?

During the discussion, Dodik gave the impression that he was much more enthusiastic about the Kremlin than about the European Union. “Putin is an interesting guy and he is very pleasant. I won’t stop visiting him,” he said. The Bosnian Serb leader awarded the Russian president the highest order of the Republika Srpska after the invasion of Ukraine and was also honored by Putin himself. At the Vienna panel discussion, Dodik accused the EU of waging a proxy war against Russia via Ukraine as a “satellite of the USA”. Dodik said he could not recognize Russian aggression.

He hopes that the EU accession process will mean that Bosnia and Herzegovina will no longer be an “internationally administered colony” but will be treated according to European standards.

Dodik was sanctioned by the US and UK, as were his son and daughter and their companies. The Dodik family is accused of “corrupt activities”: Dodik runs the Serbian-ruled part of the country like a family business and he is pushing for the separation of the Republika Srpska from the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

“EU must act more consistently”

Southeastern Europe researcher Dzihic is convinced that an EU accession process can only succeed without Dodik. Because he is “persona non grata in most European cities” and “an obvious pro-Russian player from whom Putin expects something in the future.” He adds: “Dodik fears the EU like the devil fears holy water because he knows that he would be in prison in a European Bosnia with a strong judiciary.”

If there is a vote in favor of accession negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina at the EU summit, then Dzihic still sees a very long road ahead and no time horizon by which the country could be ready to join. But a more concrete EU perspective could encourage many Bosnians to vote out corrupt and nationalist politicians.

Dzihic compares this with the vote out of the authoritarian Gruevski government in North Macedonia in 2016: At that time, the EU promised quick accession and the blockade of Greece was dissolved after Macedonia renamed itself North Macedonia. But accession to the EU has not yet taken place – Bulgaria is blocking it because of a dispute over Bulgarian culture and the minority in North Macedonia. “Something like this must not happen in the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina,” says Dzihic. “If there are to be any changes, the EU must act in a much more united, consistent, straightforward and principled manner.”