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Almost everything is now missing – the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh have been suffering from a blockade by Azerbaijan for eight months. Armenians are now leaving, others are counting on resistance at any price.
A loaf of bread per day and family – flour is becoming scarce in Nagorno-Karabakh. More and more often, after queuing for hours in front of the bakeries, people go away empty-handed. Now the leadership of the area inhabited by Armenians on the territory of Azerbaijan was also forced to ration bread. Weeks ago, stamps for the distribution of many groceries and everyday products were issued.
control over only supply route
Since December 12, 2022, the government of Azerbaijan has gradually reduced supplies via the only supply route between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, the Lachin Corridor, initially through an alleged protest action by eco-activists, since late April with a checkpoint at the border crossing from Armenia to Azerbaijan . The government in Baku speaks of the right to control over one’s own territory and the need to prevent arms shipments to the region.
However, in a November 9, 2020 Russian-brokered agreement with Armenia, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev guaranteed the free and safe movement of people and goods through the corridor. Russian soldiers should therefore control the five-kilometer-wide strip of land. The agreement ended a 44-day war in which Azerbaijan had retaken territory Armenia had occupied since the early 1990s.
Everything is missing
Since then, life has become increasingly precarious for the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh. In recent months, Azerbaijan has only allowed vehicles belonging to Russian troops and the International Red Cross carrying critically ill patients and essential medicines to pass through, and this is becoming increasingly rare.
In the meantime, the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh only have what they have left in supplies, what they can buy from the Russian soldiers at exorbitant prices and what grows in their gardens and on their fields. Farmers within reach of Azerbaijani forces have come under repeated fire, and there is a lack of fuel to operate tractors and trucks to transport the harvest.
In addition, gas and electricity supplies from Armenia are cut off. The leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh felt compelled to force the operation of hydroelectric power plants to generate electricity, which is why the water supply is increasingly failing. The residents are now complaining about malnutrition and subsequent health problems such as miscarriages.
mayoress from Paris on the Lachin corridor
Trucks with relief supplies have been piling up at the entrance to the Latschin corridor for weeks now. Ten trucks from France have now arrived, accompanied by French politicians, including Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo.
Arriving at the entrance to the Lachin corridor, Hidalgo stated that no humanitarian aid was getting through – a serious violation of human rights. “A humanitarian crisis is underway, there is a state of emergency.”
It is possible, however, that this signal of good will will remain, which is ultimately also directed at the electorate in France of Armenian origin. Relations between France and Azerbaijan have been strained for years. Aliyev accuses France of taking sides in favor of the Armenians.
worry about the future
However, gestures like these and the international attention contributed to Aliyev’s withdrawing from the military implementation of his goals since the end of September 2022. At that time, Azerbaijani forces had advanced into Armenia in a large-scale operation, killing around 300 people. The EU, the USA, Russia and other states warned Aliyev and urged the continuation of the peace negotiations they had brokered.
Aliyev, although dependent on international investment, still relies on the implementation of his maximum demands. In Nagorno-Karabakh, this is the full assimilation of Armenians into the Azerbaijani state. Accordingly, they fear that they will gradually lose their independence, if not be driven out entirely. Accordingly, they see the sending of aid supplies from Baku as an attempt to create dependencies.
In addition, since August 20, Azerbaijan has been allowing more Armenians to leave Nagorno-Karabakh accompanied by Russian troops – with no guarantee of their return. The number of those who left the country could now be several hundred.
Resistance at all costs?
This policy has the potential to divide the people of Nagorno-Karabakh and put even more pressure on their leadership. Some advocate entering into talks with the government in Baku, even if internationally mediated attempts have failed several times in the meantime.
Others lean toward resistance at all costs, spurred on by radical nationalist forces in Armenia and the diaspora. The self-defense forces still have an estimated 5,000 fighters, weapons and ammunition. The entire male population goes through compulsory military service by the age of 18. It can also be assumed that most households have weapons.
Should the Azerbaijani armed forces try to occupy Nagorno-Karabakh, there is a risk of a guerrilla war that even Nikol Pashinyan’s government in Yerevan would not be able to control.
Lost
Under the protest of the opposition in Armenia and the leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh, Pashinyan declared last year that he would recognize the sovereignty of Azerbaijan – including Nagorno-Karabakh – in a peace agreement. This is the only way he could get Azerbaijan to recognize the state of Armenia within its existing borders, he said.
However, Pashinyan continues to demand rights and guarantees for the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the presence of an international organization would be necessary for their implementation, not only Armenian experts are convinced.