analysis
Status: December 31, 2021 5:13 a.m.
In a phone call about the Ukraine conflict, US President Biden threatened Russian President Putin with harsh sanctions. At the same time, he campaigned for a diplomatic solution – and thus pursued a dual strategy.
US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin talked on the phone for 50 minutes. From the US perspective, there has apparently been no real progress. According to his spokeswoman, Biden warned the Russian president again that the US and its allies would “react decisively” to another invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, Biden once again advocated a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis.
The US President referred to the negotiations planned for January 10th in Geneva. These negotiations are planned in three steps: first directly between delegations from the USA and Russia, then between NATO and Russia, and finally within the framework of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which Ukraine also belongs to.
US dual strategy
So the US remains with a double strategy that relies on diplomacy and deterrence at the same time: on the one hand, to speak directly to Putin, to keep him in diplomatic dialogue, on the other hand, to threaten Ukraine with harsh economic sanctions and military support.
Demian von Osten, ARD Moscow / Kerstin Klein, ARD Washington, with details of the phone call from Putin and Biden
Topics of the day 10:45 p.m., 12/30/2021
In the event of a renewed invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the USA and European countries have threatened, among other things, the exclusion of Russia from the international payment system Swift – a step intended to make it more difficult for Russian oil and gas exports in particular.
In addition, President Biden has emphasized several times that in the event of a Russian invasion, Ukraine and other Eastern European countries will be given additional military support. However, it is extremely unlikely that the US will send its own combat troops to Ukraine.
From the US perspective, Russia must take the first step
According to the former US ambassador to Ukraine, William Taylor, it is now up to Russia to take the first step towards de-escalation. “Real negotiations cannot take place and be unsuccessful until the Russians withdraw most of their troops from the border,” Taylor told CBS. “You don’t negotiate as long as the other side is pointing sharp weapons at you. This de-escalation on the Russian side must take place before serious negotiations can take place.”
After the telephone conversation with Biden-Putin, the White House said that the USA would inform both Ukraine and the European NATO allies – above all Germany, France and Great Britain – directly and involve them in all further negotiation steps. In this way, the USA wants to avoid any impression that it is negotiating with Russia on its own, without taking its European partners into account. At the same time, the repeated direct talks between Biden and Putin make it clear that the USA also sees itself in the leading role on the western side in the Ukraine crisis.
Carrot in the background?
It remains unclear whether Biden, without publicly speaking about it, has some kind of carrot in hand for Putin if the Russian side actually takes steps to de-escalate the Ukraine crisis. It is clear that the Biden administration is not ready to implement the security guarantees desired by the Russian side one-to-one, i.e. to exclude Ukraine from joining NATO forever and stationing troops and weapon systems in Eastern European countries that are already NATO members are to drive back.
After Biden-Putin’s renewed telephone call, the White House said: There are areas in which progress can be made and other areas in which this is not possible. From Washington’s point of view, the outcome of the current Ukraine crisis remains open for the time being.