A missile that falls on Polish soil and kills two inhabitants of the border village of Przewodow, allies of Ukraine who condemn the territorial violation of Poland (member of NATO since 1999), the United States who ensure that the Russia has “nothing to do” with the incident and an international community that still wonders about the origin of the missile. At the beginning of the week, “the shooting affair in Poland” raised fears of an escalation of the conflict. During this chaotic episode, Volodymyr Zelensky remained straight in his boots for several days before subtly changing his speech. In disagreement with Washington and NATO, the Ukrainian president first maintained that the missile was “Russian” before slipping in “I don’t know what happened”. 20 minutes tries to translate the attitude of Volodymyr Zelensky, with Alexandre Eyriesteacher-researcher in communication and information sciences at the University of Lorraine.
What did Volodymyr Zelensky say after the missile fell in Poland?
A missile killed two people on Tuesday in the Polish village of Przewodow, near the border with Ukraine, heavily bombarded by the Russian army. After a period of questioning about its origin and the risks of escalation, Warsaw considered Wednesday “highly probable” that it was an “unfortunate accident” due to a Ukrainian projectile. As for Volodymyr Zelensky, he reacted immediately, stating without reserve on television: “I have no doubt that this missile was not ours. “Today, Russian missiles hit Poland, the territory of an allied country (…). We need to act. It is a very significant escalation, ”hastened to comment on the Ukrainian president on Tuesday evening.
Quite quickly, the international community takes a more moderate view and does not validate the Ukrainian leader’s version of the facts. Poland thus considered on Wednesday as “highly probable” that the projectile was fired by mistake by Ukraine.
While Russia denies being the author of the shooting and castigates President Zelensky’s “provocation”, US President Joe Biden considers the possibility of a Russian shot “improbable”, while France calls for “more great caution” and that Germany warns against “hasty conclusions”. ” Let’s be clear. It’s not Ukraine’s fault,” said NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg.
It was only two days later, this Thursday, that Volodymyr Zelensky said he “did not know what had happened” in Poland, thus going back on his assertions. “I don’t know what happened. We don’t know for sure. The world does not know. But I’m sure it was a Russian missile, I’m sure we fired from air defense systems,” the president said in a statement from the Ukrainian presidency. And to add: “It is only after the investigation that it will be possible to draw conclusions” on the origin of the shooting.
Why did Volodymyr Zelensky take a long time to reconsider (not completely) his accusations?
“Coarsely backpedaling? It could be perceived as a mark of weakness, ”analyzes Alexandre Eyriès. According to our expert, a pure and simple apology could cause Volodymyr Zelensky to lose the support of part of his population. “He moves without totally abandoning his position. Otherwise, it might appear inconsistent. Remaining moderate allows him to keep Ukrainian and international opinion under pressure”, specifies Elexandre Eyriès.
The fact remains that since Tuesday, the Ukrainian leader has begun the fight for semantics, that of crisis communication. The president first frankly accused Moscow, before entrusting “believing” in the Russian origin of the strike. Finally, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister declared Thursday Russia “fully responsible” for the incident, regardless of the origin of the projectile. A “clever way of placing the blame on the opposing camp”, according to our expert.
And while Ukraine continued to suffer a rain of Russian missiles on Tuesday, the United States, like NATO the day before, aligned itself with this version, believing that Russia bore “ultimate responsibility” for Przewodow episode. “The American statement legitimizes Zelensky’s first statement, strengthens the president and wins him a new battle in his communication with the Russians. It’s positive for him, “said Alexandre Eyriès, who added that the leader could continue on the axis of caution as long as there is no “absolute proof” that the missile is Ukrainian.
And Volodymyr Zelensky to indicate this Thursday that Ukrainian experts were also going to participate in the international investigation responsible for shedding light on this incident.
What does the “missile affair” reveal about the personality of Volodymyr Zelensky?
The communication skills of the Head of State since the start of the conflict are well established. But the Polish episode reinforces the story that the latter has wanted to put forward since the start of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine. “In terms of storytelling, Volodymyr Zelensky does not victimize himself, while showing that he embodies the face of a suffering people, attacked by his neighbour. For him, any war action that aggravates the conflict is to Russia’s credit. This discourse maintains support and mobilization”, specifies Alexandre Eyriès, while considering that the Ukrainian leader was able to quickly take on the symbolic charge of warlord.
But not everything is positive for the former TV series actor. “The missile affair” also showed the limits of its “just in time” communication. The context of the war, mental fatigue, piecemeal management may have caused an “overreaction”. “Once the conflict is over, there could be a kind of backlash, with convictions a posteriori of some of his declarations”, predicts Alexandre Eyriès.