The timing was hilarious. No sooner had Volodymyr Zelensky set foot on British soil, late Wednesday morning, than Olaf Scholz spoke to German MPs. “Ukraine belongs to Europe, its future is in the European Union! “, he launched. An hour later, the Ukrainian president tirelessly thanked the British parliamentarians and insisted on the friendship between Ukraine and the United Kingdom, before asking for fighter planes.
This is the new stage of negotiations between kyiv and its Western allies, after sending helmets and bulletproof vests at the start of the conflict, then ammunition, lethal weapons, Caesar guns, anti-aircraft defense and soon heavy tanks. Month after month, Americans, Britons and Europeans pushed up volumes. “Volodymyr Zelensky is in his role, he must obtain a maximum of weapons as quickly as possible and plays on the one-upmanship” in which the Westerners engage, analysis for 20 minutes Jean de Gliniasty, director of research at Iris and former diplomat, author of Russia, a new chessboard (Ed. Eyrolles, 2022).
A “squabble” carried by the United Kingdom?
Because “there is the war in Ukraine, which is dramatic, and the deplorable squabble over who will be closest to Zelensky”, denounces Federico Santopinto, director of research at Iris. According to him, as soon as the Europeans discuss whether to send a type of weapon to Ukraine, “the British try to anticipate and go faster than the others to show that they are independent”. This “diplomatic competition”, the researcher at Ifri and editor-in-chief of Foreign politic Dominique David explains it to 20 minutes via four elements: “a strategic choice by Great Britain to have a specific diplomatic position in Central Europe for years, a desire to stand out from the Union which it has just left, a certain anti-Russian obsession, and finally a desire to stick to the line of the United States”.
But would this “strategic rivalry” only be fueled by the United Kingdom? “We don’t subscribe to that view. The sanctions are always coordinated with our international partners, we organized an EU-Ukraine summit last week and the president has been to Kyiv four times. We are in a constant dialogue, ”defends a source at the European Commission. “The two entities have different agendas”, balances Jean de Gliniasty. “The British government wants to show that it has a dynamic and autonomous foreign policy. In Europe, we are mainly concerned with reaching a peace agreement, ”he explains.
A “dangerous and irresponsible” one-upmanship
In this remote “competition”, what are the forces present? On the one hand, there is the “Atlantic hierarchy”, which Volodymyr Zelensky scrupulously respects. After a first visit to the United States, an essential ally, he went to the United Kingdom, “the second most important country in NATO”. Then in Paris, “which has a primacy in European defence”, deciphers Federico Santopinto. On the other hand, we find “the real arms suppliers, which remain the EU and the United States. The British army is bloodless and does not have the F-16s that Zelensky is asking for,” recalls Jean de Gliniasty.
Moreover, the United Kingdom is “very verbal, but probably less in reality”, underlines Dominique David. Europe, on the other hand, is more “reluctant”, focused on “fundamental questions”, according to Jean de Gliniasty. And “below a common discourse of support for Ukraine, there are differences on concrete decisions” because the Union remains composed of 27 countries with their own interests, notes Dominique David.
Still, if London can do nothing against the Ukrainian desire to join the EU, overbidding in sending weapons could prove harmful. “This first-mover race is dangerous and irresponsible. When countries decide to support a country at war, they must do so with some discretion. There, we say how many tanks we send, where and at what time… It’s absurd”, criticizes Federico Santopinto, calling for more “common reasoning”. And if Vladimir Putin knows where and when to bomb the newly delivered weapons, it is not certain that Volodymyr Zelensky will still say “thank you” for very long to his eager allies.