If one can be condemned in Russia for denouncing a war which is officially only a “special military operation”, what risk does one risk by criticizing the fact that this same special operation is not a war? This is the dilemma that has been giving the Kremlin a headache for several days, as the criticism from pro-regime commentators adds up. “Mistakes have been made,” even says Chechen President Kadyrov, partly placed in power by Vladimir Putin, and whose name is generally enough to terrorize opponents of the Kremlin.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive does a lot of damage to the official narrative. Defending itself from any retreat, the Ministry of Defense thus pleaded for the “regrouping” of the forces. Hard to swallow for those who know what’s going on at the front. “If no change is made today or tomorrow in the way of carrying out the special military operation, then I will have to contact those who are at the head of the Ministry of Defense and those who are at the head of the country in order to to explain to them what the situation is on the ground,” Kadyrov said.
Critics who “serve the interests of the Kremlin”?
“Those who are dangerous for the Kremlin are those who built the regime”, “ultranationalists fueled by Putin since the 2000s”, notes for 20 minutes Carole Grimaud, geopolitical analyst and specialist in Russia. The master of the Kremlin today takes a backlash from them: “We promised them a beautiful cake, and they only had a shapeless cake for the moment”, she says. But faced with the setbacks on the front, the latter absolutely do not criticize the war. On the contrary.
Blogger Maxime Fomine, 400,000 subscribers on Telegram, calls for example for “a warning nuclear strike” on Serpents’ Island, a strategic territory taken over by Ukraine. On the television sets of the media in the pay of power, the discourse is hardly less vehement. “In any case, it can serve the interests of the Kremlin,” analyzes Agathe Demarais, director of global forecasts at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Either because this argument is “orchestrated” to prepare the ground, or because it can “give the illusion that Putin is ready for discussion”, thus improving his image.
“The bubble is bursting”
Here he is having to spare “a fringe which hopes that Ukraine will bombard the border regions even harder to raise awareness”, affirms Carole Grimaud. Indeed, martial law and general mobilization, called for by these ultranationalists, “can only be declared if Russian soil is in danger”. However, for the moment, Vladimir Putin “has not used the bombardments in Crimea and on Kursk”, in his wish to “preserve public opinion”, details the researcher.
But “the bubble is bursting,” she said. Launched on September 7, a petition signed by several deputies called for the dismissal of the president for “high treason”. If its authors quickly had to face justice, another petition took over from the Saint Petersburg city council. And this one “criticizes the conduct of Putin but without explicitly mentioning the war in Ukraine”, notes Carole Grimaud, in order not to fall under the blow of the law. On September 14, however, only 67 local elected officials from Saint Petersburg and Moscow signed the text. Not enough to shake a man whose party won 49.8% of the vote in the last legislative elections.
Elections and frozen accounts
Especially since Russia is in the midst of local elections. “Is criticism not part of this configuration? asks Carole Grimaud. She takes the example of Gennady Ziougannov, leader of the Communist Party, who criticizes the “war”: “He had six months to do it,” she recalls. As for the petition, “it risks quickly falling through”, its signatories risking being replaced. “The protest has gained media momentum in the West, but not in Russia,” says Agathe Demarais.
Once these critics have been silenced, it will be left to manage the ultranationalists. Could heads roll? Will the Kremlin see more warlike faces land? “We don’t know at all what is going on within the Russian government”, specifies the one who is preparing a book on the effects of American sanctions. “There will surely be new generals in the army, a new strategy by cutting off electricity in Ukraine so that the country is no longer able to continue the war”, advances Carole Girmaud. And if necessary, as in 2018, “bloggers’ accounts on Telegram can be blocked”. In short, “it seems very unlikely that Putin’s days will be numbered, except in the event of a humiliating defeat”, sums up Agathe Demarais.