The news has been a bit lost in recent days, but a street in a suburb of the Ukrainian city of Odessa has been named after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. He is considered a hero in Ukraine because his government provided military, financial and intelligence assistance in the war against Russia without much discussion.
Only on Tuesday did Johnson speak again by remote control in front of the Ukrainian parliament and announced further support, such as radar systems for artillery – and night vision devices. Important for the fight, because the Russian army seems to lack the latter. At least experts report to the British newspaper TheTelegraphthat Russian troops would not like to attack at night due to a lack of suitable equipment.
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In that sense, night vision goggles would be another tactical advantage for the Ukrainian defenders. But they are already reporting successes in the east of the country, even though many of the weapons vehemently demanded from the west have not yet arrived at the front. The fighters are supposed to be near Kharkiv in the north-east according to consistent reports pushed back the Russian attackers 40 kilometers.
Russia, on the other hand, has made little or no gains along the entire line of contact. According to the Ukrainian General Staff the Russian armed forces in the region are a motley crew. Tuesday came the news that Russia’s army was withdrawing troops from Mariupol, even though they are still fighting over the steelworks there. There were rocket attacks again throughout the country during the night, including on Kyiv and Lviv in the west. The main targets were probably tracks and train stations. President Volodymyr Zelensky indicates this in a speech but as an act of desperation by the Russian troops.
Defending and conquering are not the same
So is it really looking bad for Moscow’s armed forces? Claudia Major is an expert on security and defense policy at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Berlin and warns against too much optimism in view of these success stories: “Repelling a Russian attack is something different than recapturing these huge areas. It’s a completely different challenge . We cannot conclude from the successes of the Ukrainians that they will soon retake the land bridge from Donbass to Crimea.” This is especially true when promised weapons will probably not arrive in Ukraine for a few weeks because they still need to be overhauled, the ammunition has to be procured and Ukrainian soldiers have to be trained for it.
Russia’s army may be in worse shape than expected, but retreating further doesn’t seem like an option for them right now, no matter how bad things are going. Claudia Major agrees: “Of course we don’t know exactly what’s going on in the Russian army. But on May 9th, when the historic victory over Nazi Germany is celebrated, Putin has to have something to show for it. That could be the capture of the steel mill in Be Mariupol, but also the introduction of the ruble and pseudo-independence referendums in the occupied territories, which are already being prepared. That would then also show that you have come to stay. In any case, I assume that the attacks continue,” explains the security expert.
Major also sees reasons for this in the domestic political situation in Russia and Ukraine: “At the moment, both sides still believe they will win more if they continue than if they stop. Ukraine is fighting for its existence. I fear this war of attrition that is happening right now taking place will continue for a long time to come. The argument for this is that it is easier to defend territory than to attack and take it. If Putin makes peace now, he must also be able to sell it as a success at home. And right now the Russian leadership believes it can win even more. The Ukrainians, on the other hand, would have to do a lot more to reconquer their territories. However, the will to do so and the international support is there in view of the war of annihilation that Russia is waging and the consequences of which have become visible worldwide, for example in Bucha and Mariupol.”
On Wednesday, the AP news agency reported that up to 600 people may have died in the Mariupol theater that was bombed in mid-March. Claudia Major sums up the situation: “For Russia, a bad war is better than a bad peace.”