By 2040, the population in Germany is expected to develop very differently from region to region: the east in particular is likely to lose residents. This is what the Bertelsmann Foundation predicts. The increasing aging is evident almost everywhere.
According to a forecast, the population in Germany will only grow minimally nationwide by 2040. According to that “Guidelines for municipalities” from the Bertelsmann Foundation In 16 years, around 0.6 percent more people will live in the Federal Republic.
The problem: The development is distributed very differently across the individual federal states. While Saarland and the eastern federal states have to plan for population declines, the authors predict a plus for the other states.
Decline in the east – increase in metropolises
Accordingly, the number of residents is likely to decline by 12.3 percent in Saxony-Anhalt compared to 2020, by 10.9 percent in Thuringia and by 7.3 percent in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. According to calculations, a decline of 5.7 percent is expected in Saxony and 2.4 percent in Brandenburg. However, Saarland in the west is also severely affected, with a predicted population decline of 5.3 percent.
The situation is completely different in metropolises and conurbations: for the state of Berlin, for example, an increase of 5.8 percent is expected by 2040. Baden-Württemberg, with an increase of 4.6 percent, and Bavaria, with an increase of 4.4 percent, will also grow significantly within 20 years. According to calculations, a population increase of 3.5 percent can be expected in the city state of Hamburg by 2040.
Stagnation in Lower Saxony and North Rhine-Westphalia
The same applies to urban areas in the eastern federal states: The city of Leipzig, located in the state of Saxony, is expected to increase its population by 14.7 percent by 2040 – and thus more than any other municipality. Potsdam near Berlin in Brandenburg is also at the top with growth of 11.3 percent.
Some western countries, however, will tend to stagnate – such as North Rhine-Westphalia with a predicted minimal decline of 0.1 percent or Lower Saxony with a slight increase of 0.1 percent. According to the Federal Statistical Office, around 83.2 million people lived in Germany in the comparable year 2020.
Demographic change in all municipalities
According to the study, the increasing aging of society plays a major role. The baby boomers are reaching retirement age, the number of employed people is decreasing: the proportion of people aged 65 and over in the total population will rise from 22 percent in 2020 to 28 percent in 2040. At the same time, the proportion of those potentially employed will fall from 54 to 2040 48 percent. The proportion of younger age groups in the total population, however, remains almost unchanged.
“Despite all the regional differences, the increasing aging of our society is evident in almost all municipalities,” explained the Chairman of the Bertelsmann Foundation, Ralph Heck. “We now need targeted strategies to build a suitable infrastructure for older generations and to overcome the resulting economic challenges.”
Results for municipal decision maker
The foundation carried out the calculation for all municipalities in Germany with more than 5,000 inhabitants. This corresponds to 3,063 communities in which 89.6 percent of the residents live. The study is based on data from the federal and state statistical offices. From this, the authors derived certain assumptions for the future, in particular the probabilities of moving away, dying and births.
The results are intended to be of assistance to local decision-makers in particular and are available to the federal, state, district and independent cities and municipalities. They can be accessed in the data portal wegweiser-kommune.de.
Bertelsmann Foundation
The Bertelsmann Foundation was founded in 1977 by the entrepreneur Reinhard Mohn, then head of the Bertelsmann media group. According to the group, foundations, including the Bertelsmann Foundation, now hold just over 80 percent of the shares in the Bertelsmann Group, which includes the RTL Group, the music company BMG, the Penguin Random House publishing group and service businesses.
For its studies, the Bertelsmann Stiftung collects and analyzes data and makes recommendations for action to the public and decision-makers. It works operationally, which means it does not support the work of third parties, but rather invests exclusively in self-initiated projects. According to its own statements, it serves the common good and is committed to political neutrality.