Elections are actually intended to clarify the political situation. In Berlin this was only tolerably successful last Sunday. Two days later, 466 uncounted postal votes turned up at a post office in the Lichtenberg district; in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, on the other hand, results had obviously been incorrectly entered into the database. Mistakes that also happen in other elections. But Berlin has been on probation since autumn 2021.
The election result itself also presents the parties with a tricky task. The CDU won the repeat election to the Berlin House of Representatives with a good 28 percent, while the SPD and the Greens each came up with just over eighteen percent. The number of government coalitions that are actually conceivable is therefore three. Two of them should be discussed seriously for the first time this Friday: black-red and black-green.
Even the location signals: climate protection yes, but it shouldn’t hurt
The CDU has invited to the campus of the European Energy Forum, the delegation of the Social Democrats is expected at 10 a.m., the negotiators of the Greens are coming in the afternoon. The location itself is to be understood as a signal from the CDU to its guests. Around 150 companies, start-ups and research institutions are working on the future of the sustainable city on the campus, and Germany’s largest solar charging station is also located here. The approach corresponds to the program of the CDU: climate protection yes, but it should not hurt. Technological development instead of restrictions.
These are so-called exploratory talks, so the point is to see whether it’s worth continuing to talk at all. One goes into these rounds without an agenda, but hopes for “open-ended talks,” according to party circles. Ultimately, according to the idea, there should be a “Berlin Alliance” with one of the two parties led by the CDU. Despite their election victory, the Christian Democrats have a certain responsibility. Bettina Jarasch, the Green Party’s top candidate, complained about the “tough and aggressive” election campaign at the beginning of the week. There have also been some injuries among the Social Democrats.
It is not the first time that the negotiators Kai Wegner (CDU), Berlin’s Governing Mayor Franziska Giffey (SPD) and Transport Senator Bettina Jarasch (Greens) have met. After the 2021 breakdown election, it briefly seemed as if the SPD and CDU could imagine an alliance. “There were a lot of similarities and similarities,” Wegner said right after the conversation. But the rather left-wing regional association of the Berlin SPD opposed it, and a governing coalition was formed with the Greens and the Left.
The chances for a grand coalition are hardly better than in 2021
This time, the CDU entered the talks as the victor, and if the polls are to be believed, a large majority of Berliners want an alliance between the CDU and SPD. This is mainly due to the fact that both parties are closer to each other than the CDU and the Greens on central issues such as housing and transport policy or internal security. Nevertheless, the chances for such a grand coalition are hardly better than a year and a half ago.
This is mainly due to the self-image of Franziska Giffey and her party. The Social Democrats can only hold the Red City Hall if they continue to govern with the Greens and the Left. According to the Christian Democrats, the SPD is still aware that the city belongs to them. A constructive cooperation with the SPD as a junior partner is difficult. Even the grand coalitions between 2011 and 2016 were not very trusting. And then the CDU was still the smaller partner.
That is one of the reasons why there is also sympathy for an alliance with the Greens in the leadership of the CDU. In terms of content, they are considered the more difficult partner, but not in terms of atmosphere. According to the CDU, contentious issues such as transport policy would have to be solved very pragmatically in an alliance. For example, the Greens would be responsible for the more left-wing alternative inner city area, the CDU for Berlin outside the S-Bahn ring. The problem is more the irreconcilable statements of the top candidate Wegner, who categorically ruled out any cooperation during the election campaign. A contradiction that is now difficult to resolve at the base of the CDU.
The squad of prominent heads in the Berlin CDU is manageable
The strongly polarizing statements made by the CDU after the riots on New Year’s Eve, about the supposed dysfunction of Berlin or about car traffic have certainly meant that the protest did not end up with the AfD on a larger scale. But now, after the election, these escalations are not only a burden on the exploratory talks. Leading CDU members fear that expectations have been fueled among Berliners that even a CDU-led Senate will find difficult to live up to. Because everyone involved is aware that the city has to deal with global warming. Or that there are no simple solutions to the problems that led to the riots at the turn of the year.
In addition, the squad of prominent politicians in the Berlin CDU is rather manageable. This is certainly due to the long time in the opposition, but also to the peculiarity of the state association of regularly alienating competent Christian Democrats who have joined from outside. Exceptions are school politics, internal security or the judiciary; General Secretary Stefan Evers is also expected to hold a position as a senator. In a CDU-led Senate, however, it is important that veteran party officials in Berlin are not given posts, says a Christian Democrat. In case of doubt, competence must also be obtained from outside.
But even a failure of the exploratory talks is not seen by some party members as a catastrophe. Then the incumbent Senate consisting of the SPD, the Greens and the Left Party could govern for another three years. After that, in the 2026 elections, all the more Berliners would vote for the CDU.