Berlin House of Representatives: Who chose what and why?

The House of Representatives election was characterized by dissatisfaction. Why did this hit the coalition partners so differently? And to whom does the CDU owe its victory? An analysis based on the figures from infratest dimap.

For the first time since 1999, the CDU rose to become the strongest party in the House of Representatives elections in Berlin. The fact that it gained around ten percentage points and overtook the SPD has a lot to do with the disappointment in the capital. Only 26 percent say things are going well in Berlin. In particular, the verdict on the administration of the city is devastating.

This great dissatisfaction was directed particularly against the red-green-red Senate. Only 24 percent of eligible voters are satisfied with his work. The CDU benefited from this.

Only 31 percent of those entitled to vote believe that a CDU-led Senate could better solve the problems in Berlin. And only 35 of those surveyed on election day wanted a Senate led by the CDU. But the Union mobilized many of the disaffected. Every second CDU voter justified their decision primarily with disappointment with other parties. Among the new CDU voters, this proportion was even 73 percent.

CDU scores with security and order

The party recorded particularly strong gains among voters over 45 years of age. While the CDU was the strongest force among the over-60s by a large margin, it was only in second place among voters under 60, just behind the Greens.

In terms of content, the CDU convinced its supporters, especially after the New Year’s Eve riots, with the topic of “security and order”, which was most frequently mentioned as the decisive topic in the election. 45 percent of all those eligible to vote are convinced that the CDU would better ensure law and order in Berlin – and 91 percent of Union voters say so.

But even more important for the success of the party: 27 percent of those entitled to vote trust it to be able to solve the most important tasks in Berlin. The CDU overtook the SPD on this key issue for the first time since 1999.

At the same time, however, the figures show that top candidate Kai Wegner was only able to develop a small amount of traction for his party. Not even one in four was satisfied with their job. If the Governing Mayor had been directly elected, 27 percent would have voted for Wegner. Although he significantly reduced his gap to SPD top candidate Franziska Giffey compared to the 2021 election, he was still five percentage points behind her.

Many former SPD voters stayed at home

Giffey, on the other hand, is the city’s most popular politician. 36 percent of those surveyed were satisfied with their work. But both in comparison to their SPD predecessors and in view of the comparative values ​​​​of the current heads of government of the federal states, this approval value is very weak.

It wasn’t just the Senate she led that received a historically poor rating from eligible voters. It is striking that this judgment is particularly to the detriment of the Social Democrats. Half blame primarily the SPD for the problems in the administration. And only 23 percent think that the party has made progress in Berlin since the 2021 election.

Even though the SPD once again achieved its highest share of votes among voters over 60, it also lost the most there. According to the analysis, many of the former SPD voters in particular either migrated to the CDU or did not go to the ballot box at all. The Social Democrats suffered the most from the significantly reduced voter turnout.

Even if the SPD is noticeably less likely to be credited with providing the best solutions to the city’s problems in many areas than it was in the 2021 election, 28 percent on election day still wanted a Senate under SPD leadership in the future. This is also due to the issues that move the city.

After security and order, the issue of housing was named as the second most important issue for the voting decision – for SPD supporters it was even the most important issue. 38 percent of Berliners blame the SPD for the current lack of living space. But 21 percent of all parties trust her to provide affordable housing – only Die Linke is just ahead of the SPD here.

Green strongest force among younger ones

The Social Democrats not only had to cope with their historically worst result in Berlin, but also higher losses than their coalition partners. In the race for the position as the second strongest force, the Greens fell just short of their previous record result of the 2021 election. In all age groups under 45 they became the strongest force. The party is particularly successful among voters who have only moved to the capital in recent years.

The previous government participation is seen negatively. 54 percent of all eligible voters think that the Greens have implemented too little in the Senate. However, they are only blamed for the criticized conditions in the city in the transport sector. Nevertheless, the disappointment with the Senate is also reflected in the fact that the exodus of former Green voters affected the non-voters the hardest.

Nevertheless, 20 percent think that the Greens have the best answers to the questions of the future – this is the best value among the Berlin parties. 25 percent also want a Senate led by the Greens – that’s hardly less support than for the SPD.

Nevertheless, the Greens are also struggling with problems. Especially when it comes to its core issue of climate policy, the party is noticeably less likely to be credited with the best solutions than in 2021. At the same time, around two-thirds of Berliners think that the Greens should distance themselves more clearly from violent activists.

Top candidate Bettina Jarasch also developed little traction. Compared to 2021, it has increased its level of awareness significantly. But this almost only increased the number of those who are dissatisfied with Jarasch’s work. On the direct election question, she was behind Giffey and Wegner.

Lederer scores for the left

The third coalition partner, the left, showed a completely different picture in parts. Top candidate Klaus Lederer is the second most popular politician after Giffey and at the same time the only one about whom more voters speak positively than negatively. But after the experience of participating in government, the party is no longer trusted as much as it was in 2021. 43 percent say that they would like the left to participate in government again. At the same time, however, three quarters of all eligible voters think that the party is too divided to really move things forward.

The left’s losses are largely attributable to men, who have turned their backs on the party more than women. However, contrary to the trend, the self-employed voted significantly more often for Die Linke than in 2021. It is also noticeable that tens of thousands of former voters for the party stayed at home this time.

FDP under competitive pressure from the CDU

The fact that the FDP had to worry about getting back into the House of Representatives from the beginning of the election evening was partly due to the migration of supporters to the CDU. At the same time, however, the Liberals, like Die Linke, lost confidence in their approaches to a solution almost everywhere in the perception of Berliners. A majority of Berliners praised the Liberals’ efforts to ease the burden on citizens. But only one in five thinks the FDP stands for new beginnings and renewal.

The party suffered the greatest losses among young men under the age of 35, civil servants and the self-employed. The clear decline in voter turnout also affected the FDP in the form of the migration of former voters to the camp of non-voters. Nevertheless, the liberals were also perceived as an alternative for those who were dissatisfied. 43 percent of FDP voters said they had made this decision this time out of disappointment with other parties.

AfD mobilizes those who are concerned and disappointed

In the case of the AfD, this proportion is 47 percent. She also scores points for reaching people with concerns and frustrations. And the concerns of the population are great: 69 percent fear falling incomes, 67 percent are very concerned that they will no longer be able to find affordable housing, and 58 percent fear that prices will rise so much that they will no longer be able to pay their bills . All of these major concerns are mentioned far more frequently by AfD supporters than by those of other parties.

The AfD achieves its best results in Berlin among voters with low and middle education, among workers and among people who find themselves in a difficult economic situation.