Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki received Chancellor Olaf Scholz with the words that a new chapter in German-Polish relations is now being opened. He’s only really right in that, in Warsaw, like everywhere else in Europe, people got used to the Christian Democrat Angela Merkel. The inaugural visit of the social democrat Scholz showed that only nuances have changed in relation to Poland. When dealing with a few countries, the leeway is as limited as with Poland. He can only move in the narrow corridor between historical responsibility, European political constraints and adherence to the rule of law.
In the Ampel coalition agreement, this corridor is marked by the affirmation that Germany and Poland are linked by a deep friendship, and the assurance that they want an EU that resolutely advocates the rule of law. Olaf Scholz cannot be blamed for emphasizing friendship a little more than the rule of law on his first visit, but that doesn’t change the basic conflict.
The pursuit of good relations with the largest and most important eastern EU neighbor, who suffered so terribly from the Nazi terror, is part of Germany’s raison d’etre. The same is true of protecting the Union from destruction by the autocratic virus. The nationalist leadership in Warsaw has been systematically undermining the rule of law for years and is raising the mood with campaigns against Berlin and Brussels. As long as that is the case, every federal government has to look for good relations with Poland, but none can really find them.
In all friendliness, two political worlds collide
For the Polish government in its current form, it is exactly the opposite. She doesn’t have to look far for ways to get on well, but she definitely doesn’t want to find them. At least not in front of the public. To the actual ruler Jarosław Kaczyński and his supporters Germany is too valuable as an enemy. This can be seen on posters denigrating German politicians and the German ambassador. It can be heard when Kaczyński reviles the vision of a European federal state as the “Fourth Reich” described in the coalition agreement of the traffic light and warns Prime Minister Morawiecki against “conformity”. The fear of Germany and the dismantling of democracy and the rule of law have been going hand in hand in Poland for years.
Seen in this way, two political worlds collided in all friendliness on the Chancellor’s inaugural visit. Where Scholz tried to let a little air out of the various conflicts, Morawiecki eagerly pumped up. In this interplay, however, Scholz went too far when he ignored the Polish demand for reparations for the destruction in World War II with reference to benefits thanks to German EU payments. For many Poles, that sounds like the very Germanic arrogance that Kaczyński plays into the hands of.
Chancellor Scholz may also expect too much from a “pragmatic” solution between the EU Commission and the Polish government in the dispute over the rule of law and blocked development aid. Kaczyński may be ready for tactical compromises, but certainly not for a real change of course. The new chapter in relations will have to wait until there is a new government in Warsaw too.