The warnings to the East can hardly be counted, but this time Washington did not mean Moscow. It’s Minsk. The US State Department on Tuesday threatened a “strong response” should Belarus help its ally Russia invade Ukraine.
For years, the Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko had strained the nerves in the Kremlin because he criticized Russia even more clearly than the USA, because he emphasized the good, friendly relationship with neighboring Ukraine, and did not recognize the annexation of Crimea because he offered to mediate in Minsk peace process. The Ukrainian leadership knew that they could count on Lukashenko to some extent, since he himself was fighting for his country’s sovereignty and feared that Russia could also usurp Belarus.
But since the obviously manipulated presidential election a year and a half ago, the situation has changed radically. Belarus is now even more dependent on its sister state Russia, it has now recognized the annexation of Crimea, while many Belarusian dissidents have fled to Ukraine and are building a new life there. Kiev and the West are now concerned that another threat could be building up in the north, from Belarus, and in the worst case even a front of their own.
“Belarus is now fully involved in the Russian escalation campaign against Ukraine,” says an analysis by the American institute Atlantic Council. Russia is in the process of “increasing its military footprint in Belarus” because Moscow has announced twelve fighter jets, two units of the air defense system S-400 and to bring another defense system to Belarus. The Atlantic Council writes that the country is also “Putin’s little helper” when it comes to cyber attacks.
Belarusian hackers want Russian withdrawal
The background is that Lukashenko and Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin agreed in December on a joint Russian-Belarusian military maneuver to take place from February 10th to 20th. His name: Soyuznaya Reshimostj, something like: Allied determination. That alone shouldn’t cause fears in the Ukrainian leadership, because military exercises of various kinds have been going on in the region for some time. Rather, it’s Lukashenko’s sharp tone, which has matched Putin’s.
“It pains us to see what is happening in Ukraine,” said the Minsk ruler, “its political leadership, controlled from outside, sometimes behaves unpredictably and irrationally. Therefore, we must be ready for this unpredictability and, God forbid, military action.” Russia has annexed Crimea, has supported the separatists in eastern Ukraine for years, has massed more than 100,000 soldiers on the Ukrainian border – and Lukashenko fears an attack by Ukraine. In his words: foreign-controlled Ukraine.
Belarus counts differently: 23,000 soldiers in the western and southern neighborhood plus 10,000 NATO soldiers and 300 tanks mean that “our country has to respond to these challenges,” as Belarusian chief of staff Viktor Gulevich told the Belta state agency. A report by the Lukashenko-loyal propaganda newspaper Belarus Today compares Ukraine to a failed state in Africa where “puppets” are in power. The name of Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko was also mentioned.
The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskij has so far been quite relaxed; apparently he does not expect Belarus to break completely with its southern neighbor, especially as electricity supplies tie the two countries together. Zelensky considers speculation that Russia could station nuclear weapons in Belarus unlikely. One does not play with such things, and if one does, at least he knows where part of the Russian nuclear arsenal is located.
By the way, Ukraine seems to have some helpers in the serious crisis among the Belarusians themselves. The newspaper Kyiv Post reported on Wednesday that an opposition Belarusian hacker group called Cyberpartisans had successfully attacked the network of the Belarusian state railways. She threatened to destroy data and made two demands: the release of all political prisoners – and the withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus.