There was grilled corn, shish kebab and pepper skewers. The sun was shining, Minsk residents strolled past flea market stalls, couples were dancing, and Soviet flags mingled under the official Belarusian flags. Belarus celebrated Independence Day over the weekend, and even US Secretary of State Antony Blinken sent “warmest wishes.” However, they didn’t go directly to Minsk, but “wherever the Belarusians are.” Fled from repression into the wide world, or behind bars in Belarus.
Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko retaliated on Monday by congratulating the Americans on their July 4 Independence Day. He even appealed to forget the quarrels “that divide entire families, societies and even continents” and to seek a way out of the “very alarming and dangerous situation” together. Lukashenko had threatened the West at the weekend.
Should there be an attack on Belarus, his country will react immediately, he said. Lukashenko spoke of the cities of Gomel, Brest or Luninets airport near the Ukrainian border. He admitted that weeks ago he had ordered his armed forces “to target the decision-making centers of Minsk opponents.” Allegedly, Ukraine is trying to draw the country into the war with the help of the West. As if it weren’t Belarus making its country available for Russian missile launches into Ukraine.
According to Ukrainian sources, twenty rockets were fired from Belarusian territory at 5 a.m. in the Chernihiv region during attacks just a week ago. Instead, the Ukrainian leadership accuses Russia of dragging Belarus into the war. “The Kremlin has already decided everything for you,” said President Volodymyr Zelensky, “but you are not slaves and cannon fodder.”
Belarus has played an important role since Russia began the war on February 24, logistically providing Russian forces with an additional front against Ukraine. The Western sanctions therefore also apply to Belarus. Lukashenko himself has repeatedly made it clear that his country is not directly involved in the fighting in Ukraine. This demarcation is important to him, because the war against Ukraine is extremely unpopular in Belarusian society. Officially keeping his country out is one of the rhetorical trump cards he believes he can use to score points with his own people.
Lukashenko speaks of a “united army”
In practice, however, there is hardly any dissent between the positions of Russia and Belarus. Lukashenko has adopted Russia’s choice of words about the war and, like Moscow, speaks of “special operations,” of the “fight against Nazis” in Ukraine, of allegedly “impending blows in the back by NATO troops.” On the day of Belarusian independence, more clearly than ever, he assured Moscow that he was firmly on his side. “We support brotherly Russia and will continue to do so.” In the common union state there is already a united grouping of armed forces – “in fact”, said Lukashenko, “it is a united army”. And the connection is getting even closer.
A week ago, Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin announced that he would deliver Iskander-M missiles to Belarus in the coming months and could modernize Belarusian fighter jets. The Iskander missiles can be equipped with nuclear weapons and theoretically reach Kyiv from Belarus. The Belarusian political scientist Alexander Klaskovsky speaks of a “noose of catastrophic dependence on Moscow” that Belarus has around its neck.
The Belarusian dictator Lukashenko has lost the political and economic leeway that he has repeatedly used successfully over the past almost three decades of his rule. Sometimes the relationship with the West was bad, and Belarus got financial support from Russia. Sometimes he held anti-Chamber meetings in Brussels, attacked Moscow and managed to get the EU and the USA to lift their sanctions. That’s over.
Since he suppressed the protests in Belarus after the rigged presidential election in August 2020, he has had no choice: Lukashenko and the West have broken with each other, and the sanctions are hitting Minsk hard. International payments have become difficult because of the blockades, and exports have collapsed, for example in the potash industry, which is so important for Belarus.
Inflation has risen and real income has fallen. And Pyotr Rudkovsky, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, does not predict anything good for Minsk. Russia will suffer economically after the war. “There are many indications” writes Rudkovsky, “that the next episode of Belarusian protests will begin against the background of a weakened local hegemon – Russia.” This means that Moscow would then no longer be able to help Lukashenko so easily to secure his power.
Suddenly, many people had to report to the local military authorities
The line has become narrow between close allegiance to Russia and emphasized sovereignty. A few days ago, Putin himself pointed out that Western sanctions would only accelerate Russian-Belarusian integration. Not only in Russia and Ukraine, but also in Belarus, a lot depends on how the war will continue, how it will end and how quickly, says the Belarusian political scientist Valeriy Karbalevich. And whether the country itself actively intervenes with soldiers.
Svetlana Tichanovskaya, who wants to remove Lukashenko from power from her exile, recently told the SZ that 97 percent of all Belarusians opposed the war against Ukraine. According to them, more than 1,500 volunteers have joined the Ukrainian army to fight for a free Belarus. A Belarusian partisan group called Bypol is said to have repeatedly destroyed signals on railway lines, thereby sabotaging supply routes for Russian soldiers.
Lukashenko seems to feel the pressure coming from his own society, even if the protest waves because of the repression have weakened. The death penalty, which has only been carried out in isolated cases for particularly brutal crimes, can now also be used for “attempted terrorist attacks” according to an amendment to the law. That should be a warning to the population: namely, not to get in the way of Russia’s war from Belarusian soil.
Belarus doesn’t want to get involved, but people’s concerns have grown. Independent online media reports that in the past few days many readers have suddenly had to report to local military authorities without official explanations. So they guessed. A nurse from Rechiza said the authorities probably wanted to test how quickly they could gather and how many people.