The incumbent Rhine’s CDU advertised Hesse as a “traffic light-free zone”. The SPD did not come off the defensive; the Greens also felt the headwind from Berlin. The FDP and the Left led a shadowy existence. The AfD was watching.
Anyone driving past the Hessian election campaign final spurt might think it was really exciting. On large posters, three political heavyweights claim to take over the helm in the Wiesbaden State Chancellery after the election Sunday.
As “our Prime Minister”, incumbent Boris Rhein (CDU) aims at feelings of unity. “Time for a female prime minister,” says Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD). And as “your prime minister,” Rhine’s coalition partner and deputy prime minister Tarek Al-Wazir (Greens) suggests that he already has his dream job.
One sentence is enough
But rarely has a state election campaign between Kassel and Darmstadt been so one-sided. Since it started after the summer holidays, Rhine has kept its challengers in check with a single sentence: “Hesse must remain a traffic light-free zone.”
The 51-year-old went from appointment to appointment warning of chaotic conditions like those that prevailed in the federal government. The SPD and the Greens are involved. In Hesse, both could only end the 25 years of uninterrupted CDU government with a traffic light coalition.
The surveys confirm the Union’s strategy: it has been leading by a wide margin for months. It is louder than ten percentage points ARD-HessenTrend ahead of the SPD and the Greens, which are probably only competing for second place.
Father in the petting zoo
The dominance of federal politics with the dispute over asylum policy and the energy transition allowed the Union to only use state political election promises such as allowances for property transfer tax or the hunting of wolves as a supporting measure. Otherwise, Rhein liked to be photographed as the country’s father in the petting zoo or in the vineyard.
He only had to fear his own mistakes and those of party friends, for example Friedrich Merz. With controversial statements about the AfD, the CDU federal leader repeatedly forced Rhein to admit that the firewall was in Wiesbaden. The theory that refugees were taking dentist appointments away from Germans forced the Prime Minister to tortuously distance himself: “That’s not my style and not my sound.”
Faeser on defense
Until the end, Faeser was unable to get the incumbent into trouble. In her dual role as Federal Interior Minister and candidate, the 53-year-old SPD politician found herself increasingly on the defensive. She barely got through with demands for more educational equality and an initiative to combat the shortage of skilled workers.
“Tailwind certainly looks different,” she initially complained about the mood clouded by federal politics. She dismissed criticism of the asylum policy for which her ministry was responsible or her controversial transfer of cyber security chief Arne Schönbohm as election campaign maneuvers conducted in Berlin.
SPD made embarrassing mistakes
But especially in Hesse, their own mistakes raised doubts about the Faeser team’s ability to campaign. An embarrassing glitch affected the election program: non-EU foreigners were supposed to have the right to vote in local elections after just six months. It had to be corrected: I meant after six years.
The strategic own goal was then led to a video with which the SPD wanted to score points against the Rhine: The clip presented a collaboration between the CDU and AfD as possible. Faeser sheepishly had the video deleted: “That’s not my style.”
It wasn’t just the Prime Minister who was upset. His second challenger Al-Wazir was also outraged by a “little dirty piece of propaganda.” Such harsh words were rarely heard from the Green Realo.
The 52-year-old is one of the architects of the first black-green state government ten years ago. Since then he has governed together with the CDU, and now he is running as a candidate for prime minister for the first time. His goal is to become Germany’s second Green head of government.
The Greens are also feeling the headwind from Berlin
Whether at alternative street festivals or visiting companies in the company of Winfried Kretschmann, the model green Prime Minister of Baden-Württemberg: Al-Wazir appeared rational, willing to compromise and anti-populist.
He responded to the “ban party” accusation against the Greens with socio-ecological caution. This has led to the puzzling paradox on posters: “Change something so that it stays the way it is.” Al-Wazir’s self-description was clearer: “People know that I proceed with a sense of proportion and step by step.”
With this course, the Hessian Greens were almost on a par with the CDU/CSU in surveys a few years ago, and Al-Wazir was the most popular politician in the country. But even he can’t help the low mood since the federal government’s embarrassing wrangling over the heating law.
With demonstrative reliability, Al-Wazir recently mobilized Green voters in the event that continuing the junior role alongside the CDU becomes the only option for power: “I’ll still be there on the Monday after the election.”
The FDP and the Left are fighting for re-entry
In the shadow of the three-way battle between the CDU, the Greens and the SPD, the smaller parties in the state parliament found it difficult to get attention. Especially since the top candidates are little known.
The FDP and the Left were fighting for their existence with poll numbers below the five percent hurdle. The motto “Fire and flame for Hesse” didn’t really catch fire with the Liberals. Despite the battered traffic light image, party leader and Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner often came to Hesse to support the election campaign.
The Hessian left, which was suffering from the ongoing discord within the federal party, also brought in federal celebrities to support them; in their case, this included party icon Gregor Gysi and party leader Janine Wissler, who was valued and rooted in the state party. In addition to the demand for more social justice, the party focused primarily on the fight against right-wing extremism with the message “Red Card against Racism”.
AfD has to do little
The AfD had the easiest time, and can hope for a significantly improved result within reach of the SPD and the Greens. We continue to rely on the federal government, it was said smugly from the state parliamentary group these days. Appearances by party celebrities were rare. The Hesse AfD expected more from advertising on social networks and the constant warning about alleged “mass immigration”.